- Julian Naglesmann’s tactics worked wonders for the first 60 minutes. That brilliance was quickly unraveled with poor substitution decisions.
- Portugal flexed some serious squad depth with their substitutions and they didn’t even have to bring on Rafael Leão. Portugal’s subs immediately turned the tide while Germany’s subs were torched for the final 30 minutes.
- This isn’t a “the refs cost us the game” comment, but the officiating was abysmal. There were a ton of poor decisions of deflections and fouls that even a youth referee would have made correctly. UEFA needs to have a better showing in marquee games, especially with the Club World Cup and World Cup on the near horizon.
- Despite the home field advantage, this match was always going to be an uphill battle for Germany. Nagelsmann has nobody that comes close to resembling a replacement for Kai Havertz, Jamal Musiala, or Antonio Rüdiger.
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FT: Germany loses 2-1.
90’: Substitution. João Palhinha replaces Cristiano Ronaldo.
84’: Yellow cards. Florian Wirtz is booked for trying to drag Bernardo Silva to his feet. Niclas Füllkrug and Rúben Dias are booked in the ensuing skirmish.
83’: Substitution. Diogo Jota replaces Pedro Neto.
80’: Yellow card. Jonathan Tah is booked for a foul on Bruno Fernandes.
71’: Substitutions. Karim Adeyemi and Felix Nmecha replace Aleksandar Pavlović and Waldemar Anton.
68’: Goal, Portugal. Germany down 2-1. Nuno Mendes burns Aleksandar Pavlović and Cristiano Ronaldo’s tap-in is ruled barely onside by VAR.
63’: Goal, Portugal. Germany tied 1-1. Francisco Conceição’s impressive left footed curler beats Ter Stegen.
61’: Substitutions. Serge Gnabry, Niclas Füllkrug, and Robin Gosens replace Leroy Sané, Nick Woltemade, and Maximilian Mittelstädt.
58’: Substitutions. Nélson Semedo, Francisco Conceição, and Vitinha replace João Neves, Francisco Trincão, and Rúben Neves.
52’: Yellow cards. Portugal coach Roberto Martínez and Rúben Neves are booked for dissent.
48’: GOOOAAALLL! Germany up 1-0. With a little pick from Nick Woltemade, Florian Wirtz scores on a header from Joshua Kimmich’s chipped assist. Confirmed by VAR.
46’: No lineup changes for either side.
Halftime Observations
- Julian Nagelsmann’s 3-4-2-1 formation was awkward at first but then started to pay dividends. Portugal is fantastic at closing down space and preventing open shots but Germany was able to create four solid opportunities in the first half, including two shots on target from Leon Goretzka and nearly a penalty kick from Aleksandar Pavlović.
- Germany’s three center-backs are playing a very high line that needs to drop deeper to prevent an easy breakaway goal that would ruin the outcome for the home team. Germany’s lack of pace has been fortunate to shut down Pedro Neto’s attempts thus far.
- Bayern Munich’s players have created the primary chances for Germany. Florian Wirtz and Nick Woltemade need to step up ASAP if Germany is going to win this grueling game to reach the weekend final.
HT: Germany tied 0-0.
34’: Both teams have created decent chances but lacked the finishing touch.
1’: LET’S GOOOOOOOOOO!!!
For the first time in the UEFA Nations League’s short history, Julian Nagelsmann has led Germany deep into the knockout rounds. Germany won its group in undefeated fashion and subsequently knocked out Italy (5-4 aggregate) in the quarterfinals.
Germany will host Portugal in a single-elimination semifinal. The winner will meet the winner of Spain-France in the final on Sunday. All three matches will be held at the Allianz Arena, Bayern Munich’s home stadium.
Historically, Germany (10W-5D-3L) holds the advantage over Portugal. However, the Portuguese have not beat the Germans in the last five attempts, dating back to 2006. Germany’s biggest win over Portugal (4-0) occurred in the 2014 World Cup group stage. Germany went on to win the 2014 World Cup.
Portugal also went undefeated in the group stage with four wins and two draws, finishing in first place of group A1 over Croatia, Scotland, and Poland.
Odds: Germany (-120), Draw (+240), Portugal (+350)
Prediction: Germany loses 2-1. With a healthy Jamal Musiala and Antonio Rüdiger, this would be a completely different game. Portugal will have its entire squad available and has played together for quite some time. Rafael Leão will beat the entire defense with speed to open up the scoring in the first half. Leon Goretzka’s header from a Joshua Kimmich free kick will tie it up. In the dying minutes, Germany will be called for a controversial handball in the box. Ronaldo will score the penalty, take his shirt off, torture Bayern and Germany fans one last time.
While you’re waiting for the game, why not check out our preview podcast? Listen to it below or on Spotify.
Match Info
Location: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Date: Wednesday, June 4th, 2025
Time: 9:00pm local time, 3:00pm EST
TV/streaming: Fox Sports 1, Find Your Country
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