Governor José Luis Escrivá. Credit: Rebel Red Runner, Shutterstock
The Bank of Spain has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast down from 2.7 to 2.4 per cent, citing global uncertainty and Trump tariffs as key reasons.
Governor José Luis Escrivá made the announcement on June 10, during a speech in Spain’s Congress of Deputies.
Escrivá linked the drop to weaker foreign demand and trade tensions driven by new US tariff policies. While Spain’s direct trade with the US is limited, some industries, including chemicals, are more vulnerable due to global supply chain exposure.
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“The Spanish economy is experiencing a growth slowdown from rates above 3 per cent to around 2.5 per cent in the first half of 2025,” Escrivá explained.
In a potential worst-case scenario with continued tariff escalation, growth could shrink by another 0.4 percentage points.
Meanwhile, the Bank projects average inflation to hit 2.4 per cent in 2025 – down slightly from the previous 2.5 per cent estimate. Unemployment is expected to hold steady at 10.5 per cent.
Escrivá also addressed the resignation of economics director Ángel Gavilán, stressing it was unrelated to the bank’s recent annual report:
“I am delighted with Mr. Gavilán. I would not have wanted him to have left,” Escrivá said.
With global economic pressures mounting, do Spain’s revised targets still feel realistic?
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