Griffin Wong previews tonight’s UEFA Women’s Euro semifinal between Spain and Germany.
If all goes the way it’s expected to, women’s soccer fans couldn’t ask for a better final for Women’s Euro 2025. England booked its place in Sunday’s final with a thrilling comeback against Italy, through a Michelle Agyemang equalizer in the 96th minute and a Chloe Kelly winner in the 119th.
If Spain wins against Germany at 3 p.m. ET (9 p.m. local) at Stadion Letzigrund, Sunday will feature the reigning Euro champions — the Lionesses won in 2022 — against the reigning World Cup winners.
La Roja are -195 favorites to win the match in regular time at DraftKings Sportsbook and -450 to advance, with Die Nationalelf at +475 and +280 to advance. The teams are +350 to draw.
Spain vs. Germany prediction, pick
Spain has been pretty much been untouchable this tournament and should clearly be favored over England should it make it to the final. La Roja are the only team in the competition with a double-digit goal differential, which they achieved in the group stage alone. They’ve scored 16 goals, the most in the competition, and allowed just three, winning each of their matches by two or more goals and posted the joint-most lopsided win when they beat Portugal, 5-0, in their first group stage game. Former Real Madrid and current Gotham FC striker Esther González leads the Golden Boot race with four goals, while reigning Ballon d’Or Féminin winner Alexia Putellas has contributed three of her own while providing a competition-high four assists.
Putellas ranks in the 99th percentile among midfielders in every single attacking category, so she’s clearly the star, but she’s far from the only dangerous Spanish attacking threat. Nine different La Roja players have found the back of the net, and eight different Spaniards have provided assists. World Cup-winning goalkeeper Cata Coll hasn’t been tested because she missed the group stage with tonsillitis and La Roja didn’t allow a single shot on target in the quarterfinals, but it’s no guarantee that she’ll even be tested tonight, given the strength of Spain’s back line. Olga Carmona ranks in the top quartile in tackles and interceptions, and even with Laia Aleixandri suspended for the semifinal due to yellow card accumulation, María Méndez, Irene Paredes, and Ona Batlle are capable defenders while being among the best attackers at their positions.
If Germany wants to pull off the upset, it’ll need to perform better than it did during the group stage, where it picked up fairly comfortable wins against Poland and Denmark before getting trounced, 4-1, by Sweden in the final match. Die Nationalelf did an excellent job hanging tough against France after going down to 10 in the 13th minute, eventually triumphing 6-5 in the penalty shootout despite Les Bleus producing two goals’ worth of chances to their one. Ann-Katrin Berger was Germany’s hero, saving all eight of France’s shots on target from open play and adding two more in the penalty shootout, laying out to her left to deny both Amel Majri and Alice Sombath. Unsurprisingly, the Gotham FC shot-stopper leads the competition in save percentage despite allowing six total goals.
Ultimately, I think Die Nationalelf’s attack, which has scored just six goals in four matches, doesn’t have the firepower to compete with La Roja. Though Jule Brand, Lea Schüller, and Sjoeke Nüsken have each found the back of the net twice, but none of them are clinical finishers to the same extent that González and Putellas are, and they play in the Bundesliga and the Première Ligue, which are a tier below the Women’s Super League, National Women’s Soccer League, and Liga Feminino. Germany’s defenders, by and large, are not as potent either as defenders or attackers as Spain’s. La Roja will win their seventh straight match by two or more goals.
Best Bet: Spain to Win by 2+ Goals (+135)