Charlie Cummings breaks down his pick and prediction for Tuesday’s EuroBasket game between Greece and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
We’re near the end of the group stage in EuroBasket 2025. For many teams, this is do-or-die territory. At 3-0, Greece’s ticket to the Round of 16 has nearly been punched. But for Bosnia and Herzegovina, they need a win in the worst way to avoid a win-or-go-home scenario in Game 5 against Georgia.
The Greeks are 18-point favorites and hold -2400 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 159.5 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this Greece–Bosnia and Herzegovina contest.
Greece vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina prediction, pick
This game already had big enough stakes. A win for Greece would put them through to the next stage and all but clinch the top spot in Group C. At 3-0 and 26 points ahead of second-place Spain on point differential, they’re in a great place to get one of the top seeds in the Round of 16.
It’s a different story for the Bosnians. At 1-2 with a -11 differential, they currently sit in fourth place in the group. If things hold, they’d just sneak into the next stage, but the schedule is not doing them any favors. They’re tied with Georgia, who also have a 1-2 record, but trail due to a -43 point differential. However, before the two squads meet in Game 5, Georgia gets to face Cyprus. The Cypriots have been the punching bag of Group C, and it sets up a lot of what-ifs for the final spot.
Let’s go by the spreads. The Georgians are -27.5 favorites tomorrow against the Cypriots, while the Bosnians are +18 underdogs. If the favorites cover both spreads by the bare minimum, that would leave B&H a game behind and down 14 points in point differential. Not the ideal scenario. Obviously, a win changes things in a big way. But even in a loss, they’ll have to play through the whistle to improve their chances of advancing. Then you have the extra drama between two of the NBA players in these squads, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jusuf Nurkic.
For what it’s worth, Giannis has averaged 33.8 points per game in his last six matchups against Nurkic in the NBA. And if you poke the bear, you’re bound to get mauled. Don’t count on the Bosnians discovering this magical defense that Nurkic is describing.
Best Bet: Greece -18 (-112)