And now, it’s Poland. Following more than three years of expanding military aggression in Ukraine, Russian forces are probing the airspace of neighboring Poland.
Officially, it was all a mistake. After pummeling Ukrainian cities with one of the largest unmanned aerial vehicle attacks to date, some 23 missiles mysteriously drifted into Poland, causing minor damage but massive shock.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated somberly that his country “is the closest it has been to open conflict” since the Second World War. Later, the Defense Ministry in Warsaw condemned the incident as an “act of aggression that posed a real threat to the safety of our citizens.” Fighter jets were scrambled to intercept the intruders. The Polish Prime Minister has invoked NATO’s Article 4 to begin urgent talks among members to react to the Russian incursion.
Some of the Iranian-produced Shahed-type drones were found 45 miles inside Polish territory, with another detected 125 miles into Poland. The Netherlands’ Air Force F-35 jets, forward based in Poland, scrambled to defend against the incoming drone incursions.
Few serious observers feel that this was a simple accident. Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s chief diplomat, said that the Russian incursion into Poland appears to be “intentional, not accidental.” Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz describes Moscow’s moves as part of “a long chain of provocations” around NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank.
Clearly, Vladimir Putin is probing to test resolve and reactions.
Let’s take a breath and a look at the map and the players. Poland is a member of NATO, having been admitted into the alliance in 1999. The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined in 2004. In other words, as the Ukraine war slogs on and spills over, these countries become the most vulnerable territories, which are nonetheless protected by NATO’s collective security treaty.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated clearly that “allies expressed solidarity with Poland and denounced Russia’s reckless behavior. … What is clear is that the violation last night is not an isolated incident. … allies are resolved to defend every inch of allied territory.”
Rutte added, “Russia is waging a dangerous war of aggression against Ukraine.”
Coincidentally, both Russia and NATO countries are conducting military maneuvers in the region. Codenamed Zapad, the maneuvers will see Russian and Belarusian forces jointly training on Belarusian territory.
Poland is prepared but naturally needs reassurance, despite having the third largest army in NATO and amongst the highest defense spending at 4.7 percent of GDP. Besides the U.S., other allies such as France, Germany, Denmark and the Netherlands have sent military and air defense units to Poland.
Just a week ago, Poland’s new President Karol Nawrocki visited Washington for a cordial White House discussion with President Donald Trump. Following the Oval Office meeting, President Trump offered to send additional American troops to Poland, building on the 10,000 already there. Trump added, “We’re with Poland all the way and we’ll help Poland protect itself.” Though the chemistry was good during the meeting, the fact remains that the United States must tread carefully in dealing with nuclear-armed Russia.
After the incident, Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautiously warned, “We think it is an unacceptable and dangerous development.” He added that if the drones were targeted at Poland, “then obviously that’ll be a higher escalatory move.”
However, Trump raises an overlooked issue. The president has threatened tough new sanctions on Russia with one caveat: European Union countries must stop buying Russian energy. During 2024, some EU states were the largest buyers, purchasing 50 percent of Russia’s LNG exports. Equally, the EU was a significant buyer, consuming 39 percent of Russia’s pipeline gas.
At the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU purchased nearly half of its natural gas from Russia. That figure is expected to fall to about 13 percent this year. Since the war, European states have purchased nearly $246 billion of Russian oil and gas, according to the think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. Much of this revenue can be presumed to fuel Moscow’s military. The group states, “In 2024, the oil & gas sector accounted for one-third of all Kremlin tax revenues, totaling $133 billion.”
Nonetheless, in a tough European State of the Union Address, President Ursula Von der Leyen immediately expressed “full solidarity” with Poland and noted “we have all seen what Russia means by ‘diplomacy.’” She added, “Russian President Putin’s message is clear, and Europe’s answer must be as well.” So too must be America’s.
John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomacy and defense issues. He is the author of “Divided Dynamism: The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; German, Korea, China.”