Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, has said new security guarantees for Ukraine would commit European countries to take on Russia directly if Moscow attacked again in the future. “Security guarantees in essence are a deterrent. That deterrent has to be plausible and in order for it to be plausible it has to be strong,” Stubb told the Guardian ahead of the UN general assembly.
He stressed the guarantees would only apply after a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, but insisted Moscow would have no influence over their shape. “Russia has absolutely no say in the sovereign decisions of an independent nation state … So for me it’s not an issue will Russia agree or not. Of course they won’t, but that’s not the point,” he said.
What kind of commitments are on the table?
After a meeting in Paris last month, French President Emmanuel Macron said 26 nations had pledged to form a “reassurance force” in Ukraine, with some ready to be present “on the ground, in the sea or in the air.” But Kyiv wants to know if those promises mean real action. Asked whether such guarantees meant Europe would be prepared to fight Russia if aggression resumed, Stubb replied, “That is the idea of security guarantees by definition.” So far, most European countries have preferred to support Ukraine while avoiding direct confrontation with Moscow. Stubb warned, however, that promises without force would be meaningless.
Where does the US fit into this?
Stubb has become an influential figure in peace talks, thanks to his personal rapport with US President Donald Trump. The Finnish leader said he and Trump remain in frequent contact, sometimes even on the golf course. He admitted progress is slow, describing it as “step-by-step” rather than dramatic breakthroughs.
Stubb said Finland has no choice but to stay close to Trump, “I think it’s the job of the president of Finland to get along with the president of the United States, whoever he is … Engagement is better than disengagement, come hell or high water.”
Can Ukraine keep fighting?
Stubb visited Kyiv last week and met President Volodymyr Zelensky. He said he left “confident” Ukraine could sustain a long war, dismissing claims to the contrary as “fake news.” At the same time, he argued any guarantees would need an “American backstop” to carry weight, while admitting the Trump administration’s level of commitment remains unclear.
Is there any chance of peace talks?
Trump has pushed for a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, but Russia’s leader has so far refused unless Kyiv accepts conditions first. Stubb said, “This war is too big for him to lose. He has made probably the biggest strategic mistake in recent history, certainly since the end of the Cold War, and he has failed in all of his strategic aims … Right now I’m quite pessimistic.”