Denmark’s gambling sector is facing one of its toughest tests in more than a decade, as the government’s Spilpakken 1 reform package introduces new restrictions that many fear will push players toward unlicensed operators.
Once hailed as a blueprint for pragmatic regulation, Denmark’s model is now under strain. The new rules include a whistle-to-whistle ban on betting ads during live sports, tighter controls on outdoor advertising near schools, and restrictions on free-to-play (FTP) bonuses.
Shock and frustration ripple through the industry
Change always lands hardest where balance once felt certain.
For years, Denmark was seen as the gold standard of gambling oversight, strict yet collaborative. But industry figures say that balance has been broken.
“I am shell shocked to say the least,” said Morten Rønde, director of trade body Spillebranchen and managing partner at Nordic Legal, reacting to the reforms.
He described the new measures as a turning point for a sector that had long enjoyed an open dialogue with regulators. Rønde explained:
“Each operator has two contact persons assigned. A legal contact and a technical contact. So that creates a more personal approach in dialogue with the regulator.”
Government defends the reforms as a social safeguard
To the government, this is social reckoning.
Tax Minister Ane Halsboe-Jørgensen said the reforms aim to stop entertainment “from turning into addiction,” citing government data showing half a million Danes experienced some level of gambling problem in 2021, double the number from 2016.
Political support for tighter rules spans parties. Liberal Party member Jan E. Jørgensen said he was “pleased” the measures would better protect children from gambling exposure. But industry leaders argue the government is acting on outdated and inconclusive research rather than evidence-based findings.
“There’s been a rise in gambling addiction. But based on a study that is now three years old and quite inconclusive.”
He said the real issue is advertising saturation, not a rise in harmful play:
“people are just sick of all the gambling adverts, which we agree with – there are too many of them. They are overexposed in the market.”
Industry warns of black market risk
When regulation tightens too far, the market looks for a way out.
Rønde warned that if legal operators lose the ability to advertise, their competitive edge disappears, leaving the black market as the only visible option. He said:
“Advertising in Danish media is the only advantage that a licensed operator has. Because otherwise it’s just restrictions and taxation. When you are [no longer] allowed to advertise, you lose that competitive advantage.”
He pointed to Italy and the Netherlands, where ad bans led to a spike in illegal gambling activity. “It’s impossible to block unlicensed operators completely,” he said, noting that Denmark’s channelisation rate has already dropped from 90% in 2022 to 72% today, according to H2 Gambling Capital.
Economic impact and operator uncertainty
What begins as policy soon becomes economics.
Local operators and broadcasters are bracing for financial fallout. TV2, Denmark’s largest commercial channel and broadcaster of the Superliga, expects losses of up to €12 million per year due to the advertising ban. Government calculations also point to a tax revenue loss in the hundreds of millions of Danish kroner.
Rønde warned the combined effect of the 20-plus measures could force operators to exit the market. He said:
“It will severely impact the market and the whole business of being in Denmark.”
A warning from neighbouring Sweden
Even Denmark’s neighbours are watching closely, and with concern.
Gustaf Hoffstedt, secretary general of Sweden’s trade body BOS, called Denmark’s shift “worrying,” noting that the country had long been a beacon of regulatory balance alongside the UK.
Hoffstedt said:
“Denmark should pay more attention to how to create an attractive legal licensed market than to implement measures that will scare away more consumers. After all, that’s the number one consumer protection measure that you can take.”
He warned that Denmark’s once-admired framework risks sliding toward the same restrictive path seen across Europe:
“Yes, I’m afraid it will change – that Denmark is also choosing a path that in the long run may lead to them crawling in the mud, just as so many other European jurisdictions.”
As Denmark prepares to implement Spilpakken 1 in January 2027, the question now is whether one of Europe’s most respected gambling systems can survive its own success, or whether good intentions will drive players away from the very protections they were meant to ensure.
Source: iGB