Ratings agency S&P affirmed Poland’s outlook at “stable” on Friday, citing a balance between strong medium-term growth prospects over the next two years and rising debt risks.
This contrasts with the decisions of Fitch and Moody’s to revise Poland’s outlook to “negative”, citing mounting fiscal pressures amid wide budget deficits.
Poland significantly increased military procurement and defense spending amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a widening of its fiscal deficit and adding pressure to its public finances.
S&P said the Polish economy remains unaffected by geopolitical tensions, assuming that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not escalate into NATO member territory, including Poland.
Despite higher defense spending and a weak fiscal outlook, S&P noted that Poland’s growth prospects remain strong and inflation is expected to stay within the central bank’s target range of 1.5% to 3.5% next year.
“Poland’s economy is remarkably resilient,” S&P Global said.
The ratings agency expects Poland to maintain a 3% growth between 2025 and 2028, overcoming external pressures from euro zone markets, including Germany’s slowdown. This projection is supported by strong domestic demand, steady consumer spending and increased public infrastructure investment as EU recovery funds peak in 2026.
S&P expects Poland’s current account to slip into a small deficit between 2025 and 2028. However, the country still has strong access to external financing and maintains low foreign debt levels, supporting its stable credit profile.
The agency also affirmed its “A-/A-2” long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings.