The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) slipped on Thursday while European stocks were mixed as the UK economy slowed in the third quarter of the year. UK gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by just 0.1% in the July to September period, down from 0.3% in the three months to June.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also revealed that, adjusting for population, real GDP per head came in unchanged, meaning there was no growth at all. The services sector grew by 0.2% while construction expanded by 0.1%.
However, the production sector contracted by 0.5% mainly because of a 28.6% decline in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. This comes as Jaguar Land Rover ground to a halt for a whole month, thanks to a cyber attack disrupting its supply chain. That knocked 0.17 percentage points from monthly GDP.
Read more: UK economic growth slows to 0.1% amid hit from JLR cyber-attack
Lindsay James, investment strategist at wealth manager Quilter, said: “Today’s GDP release confirms what recent data has hinted at – the UK economy is struggling to maintain momentum as we head towards year-end.”
“This paints a picture of an economy that started 2025 strongly but is now badly losing steam just as the chancellor prepares for a pivotal autumn budget. Her next move will be critical if she is to recover Labour’s economic growth mission and prevent any whispers of a recession looming.”
The Bank of England had forecast 0.2% growth for the quarter, as had analysts surveyed by Reuters, citing weaker exports to the US and the impact of the cyber attack.
Today’s weak data now points to increased odds of further and faster interest rate cuts from Threadneedle Street, as soon as next month.
Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK said: “If we didn’t think a rate cut in December was already nailed on, this morning’s data means it would almost certainly be now.”
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Elsewhere, a record-long US government shutdown came to an end last night after 43 days, with president Donald Trump signing the funding legislation that was passed in a 222-209 vote by the House of Representatives.
The package passed by Congress includes three bills of full-year funding for specific departments including agriculture and veteran affairs, but with most government agencies being funded until 30 January.
Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank said: “So, we could be on the verge of another shutdown in just over 10 weeks’ time, not least if tensions over healthcare subsidies that Democrats had pushed for escalate between now and then.”