Key Points and Summary – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warns Russia is preparing for a “big war” by 2029, citing record military outlays and an expanding defense base.
-He urges tighter sanctions and starving Moscow of energy revenue as the EU pursues a full ban on Russian fossil fuels by January 2027 and the U.S. targets Rosneft and Lukoil.
Russian T-90M Tank in Ukraine War. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Yet Europe may struggle to scale in time: a Kiel Institute report flags production bottlenecks, fragmented rearmament, and risky reliance on U.S. guarantees.
-Moscow calls such warnings escalatory; Sergei Lavrov again blasted NATO expansion. The core question: can Europe convert pledges into real capability by 2029–2030?
Kyiv: Russia Prepping for ‘Big War’ Before 2030
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claims that Russia is planning for a “big war” that could kick off in 2029. Zelensky’s remarks, shared to X on Thursday, arrive alongside the news that Russia is spending record amounts on its military.
“We need more pressure on Russia,” Zelensky said this week. “According to the situation on the battlefield, we don’t see that Russia wants to stop.”
The Ukrainian president argued that Russia’s defense-industrial base is expanding rather than slowing, and that the Kremlin appears intent on sustaining a prolonged confrontation if the front line in Ukraine continues to be relatively static.
His words echo similar claims from Berlin’s defense chief made over the summer. European officials have been issuing similar warnings for months, but Zelensky’s timeline is unusually blunt.
The idea that Moscow could be ready to launch a wider assault within five years has sharpened debates across NATO capitals, where governments have promised to lift defence spending toward 5 percent of GDP. Whether those pledges turn into real industrial output is another matter.
Zelensky framed his post as both a plea for support in Ukraine’s ongoing defense efforts and a broader strategic warning. If Moscow is given space to regroup, he argued, it will return stronger. “Europe must be ready in 2029 or 2030,” he wrote, adding that reducing Russia’s access to Western money—particularly from energy exports—remains essential.
This week Brussels is also working toward securing a total ban on Russian fossil fuels, although the target date for this to be fulfilled will be January 2027.
It comes as Washington has already tightened-up sanctions, with the U.S. Treasury rolling out fresh measures against Russian state-backed oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil.
But even with harsher sanctions, there are doubts about Europe’s ability to prepare for a major conflict at the pace Zelensky suggests. A June report by the Kiel Institute flagged persistent bottlenecks in defence production and a patchwork approach to rearmament across the EU.
The paper also claims Europe’s ongoing reliance on U.S. security guarantees carries a huge risk if Washington were ever to cool relations.
Naturally, Moscow continues slamming Europe for what it claims amounts to escalation. Speaking to Russian state media on Thursday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed his hopes that Washington would “refrain from actions that could escalate the conflict.”
He also repeated Moscow’s long-running warnings against further NATO expansion. Lavrov also accused European governments of “sabotaging all peacemaking efforts” and preparing for a future confrontation.
As Russia pours money into missiles, drones and armoured divisions, the question is no longer whether Europe should prepare for the worst, but if it has left it far too late to do so.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education. You can follow her on X: @llggeorgia.
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