The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) dipped on Monday, with other major European markets also declining, as investors looked ahead to the release of US economic data that was delayed by the government shutdown.
This week’s calendar is packed with both delayed and scheduled economic data releases, following an end to the longest US government shutdown in history last week.
The lineup includes September’s US jobs report, due to be released on Thursday. According to a research note on Monday, Deutsche Bank (DBK.BE) economists expect a sharp rebound in payrolls, forecasting headline and private payrolls to increase by 75,000, up from the 22,000 jobs added in August.
August’s US construction spending data is due out today, while factory orders data is slated for release on Tuesday, followed by trade balance figures on Wednesday.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) October meeting are also set to be released on Wednesday, which investors will be looking at closely for any clues as to central bankers’ thinking when it comes to December’s interest rate decision.
Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, said that “comments from the White House that some of the economic data which had been due during the impasse may not be released at all added to concerns about the next interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve.”
He added: “Investors had been pricing in an almost certain cut, particularly given the weakness of the labour market and a levelling of inflation, but the likelihood has now fallen to less than 50% given the possibility that the Fed may decide to wait until full visibility has been restored, which could well spill over to next year.”
In the UK, meanwhile, investors will be keeping an eye on the latest inflation data, with October’s consumer price index (CPI) reading due out on Wednesday.
The European Union’s October inflation print is also scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
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The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) dipped 0.1% to 9,687 points at midday.
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The DAX (^GDAXI) in Germany fell 0.6%.
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Over in Paris, the CAC 40 (^FCHI) declined 0.4%.
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The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) fell 0.4%.
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The pound was muted against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) hovering at $1.3180.
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Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) climbed 0.3%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) rose roughly 0.1%. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), which includes fewer tech stocks, were steady at midday.
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Budget speculation contributing to UK’s weak growth, says former BoE economist
Andy Haldane, former chief economist at the Bank of England (BoE), said in an interview with Sky News on Monday that budget speculation had contributed to the UK’s weak economic growth.
Haldane said that there has been “a real circus that’s been in town for months and months now – circus of speculation”.
He said that speculation over what might be announced in the autumn budget on 26 November has “caused businesses and consumers to hunker down.”
“One of the reasons we had a very weak growth number last week is because that budget speculation has damped people’s willingness to spend,” he said. “And first and foremost we need to stop that speculation.”
Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) last week showed that the UK economy grew by just 0.1% between July and September, down from 0.3% in the previous quarter.
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European Commission lifts eurozone growth forecast
The European Commission (EC) has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for the eurozone for 2025, according to a release on Monday.
The EC said it now expected the euro area’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.3% in 2025, versus a forecast of 0.9% back in May.
The governing body said it then anticipated that the eurozone economy would expand by 1.2% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.
The EC said that latest business indicators and survey data point to “sustained positive momentum” in the coming quarters.
“The EU’s highly open economy remains susceptible to ongoing trade restrictions, but the trade deals reached between the US and its trading partners, including the EU, have alleviated some of the uncertainties that overshadowed the spring orecast,” the EC said.
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Gold prices waver as markets brace for economic data
Yahoo Finance UK’s Pedro Goncalves writes:
Gold prices were mixed on Monday morning as investors braced for a busy week of US economic data, which could offer further clues as to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Gold futures slipped 0.2% to $4,085.30 per ounce, while spot gold edged up 0.1% to $4,088.50 an ounce at the time of writing.
Markets are focusing on a slew of US economic reports this week, with particular attention on the delayed September nonfarm payrolls report, which is set for release on Thursday. Economic strength, or signs of weakness, could shape investor expectations for the Fed’s next move.
The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a 44% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, a decrease from the 62% probability recorded just a week ago.
Read more on the latest commodity and currency moves here.
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FTSE 100 risers and fallers
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WPP shares surge on takeover talk
Yahoo Finance UK’s Pedro Goncalves writes:
Shares in WPP, the world’s largest advertising group, surged by more than 5% in London on Monday, driven by a wave of takeover speculation. According to the Sunday Times, French advertising rival Havas (JP7.F) has held talks about acquiring WPP, while private equity giants Apollo and KKR are also said to be exploring a potential bid for the company.
This renewed interest in WPP comes on the heels of a difficult period for the advertising group. Earlier this month, WPP’s share price tumbled to its lowest level since 1998, after a significant cut to its revenue guidance for the year. The company’s newly appointed CEO, Cindy Rose, acknowledged that WPP’s recent performance had been “unacceptable,” further rattling investor confidence.
Read more on today’s trending tickers here.
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US stock futures rise
Our US team writes:
Tech led US stock futures higher on Monday, poised to revive a stalled rally fuelled by doubts about Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, as investors looked ahead to this week’s crucial monthly jobs report.
Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) climbed 0.8%, while those on the S&P 500 (ES=F) rose roughly 0.6%. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F), which includes fewer tech stocks, moved up 0.2%.
The coming week sees some of the last major releases for earnings season, particularly for AI trade. Nvidia (NVDA) is set for its blockbuster report on Wednesday, always an intensely scrutinized event. Investors will also get fresh insight into consumer strength as retailers led by Walmart (WMT) report. Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), and Gap (GAP) also release reports this week.
Find out more on today’s US market moves here.
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Budget uncertainty drags down UK house prices
Yahoo Finance UK’s Pedro Goncalves writes:
The UK average new seller asking price dropped by 1.8%, a decrease of £6,589, which brings the national average house price to £364,833 – the steepest November decline in more than a decade amid growing anxiety about potential property tax changes in the upcoming budget.
The fall exceeds the typical November decline of 1.1% observed over the past decade, according to figures from Rightmove (RMV.L). A high number of homes for sale is intensifying competition, while rumours of new taxes aimed at higher value properties have encouraged buyers to wait.
More than a third of listed homes (34%) have had at least one asking-price reduction with the average cut being 7%, the highest level since February 2024.
Read more on the story here.
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Japan’s economy contracts in the third quarter
Japan’s economy contracted in the third quarter, as the country’s exports were hit by US president Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) shrunk by 0.4% in July to September, compared to the previous quarter and by 1.8% on annualised basis, data released on Monday showed.
Exports fell by 1.2% compared to the second quarter and by 4.5% versus the same period a year ago.
The US and Japan announced a trade deal in July, which saw baseline tariff of 15% placed on imports of Japanese goods.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 (^N225) index closed Monday’s session 0.1% lower, on the back of this latest economic data.
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Good morning!
Hey there! Vicky McKeever here — ready to bring you the latest economics and markets news of the day.
In terms of results, we have earnings due out from the following companies on Monday:
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