Cymru will host North Macedonia at Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday in the final round of World Cup qualifying, a fixture that carries significant stakes for both sides.
The two teams arrive level on points in Group J. While Belgium have already secured control of the group, the outcome in Cardiff could determine who finishes directly behind them. Cymru are also eyeing a better play-off position, while North Macedonia aim to end their campaign with a statement result on the road to clinch second place.
Cymru’s steady progress
Cymru’s campaign has been marked by consistency rather than flair. They opened with a controlled 3-1 victory over Kazakhstan, followed by a 1-1 draw away in Skopje, where they held 69% possession and posed the greater threat after the interval.
The home tie against Liechtenstein showcased one of their clearest performances, dominating possession with 79% and applying pressure throughout. Cymru have also demonstrated they can score in tougher encounters, netting three in Brussels against Belgium, despite ultimately losing 4-3. Their recent 2-4 home defeat to Belgium exposed some transitional weaknesses, but overall, their approach has remained solid.
North Macedonia’s growing confidence
North Macedonia arrive in good form after a campaign built on organisation and sharp attacking moments. They began with a 3-0 home win over Liechtenstein, followed by a 5-0 victory in the reverse fixture. A 1-0 win away to Kazakhstan highlighted their ability to manage tight games, while two draws against Belgium emphasised their discipline and defensive structure.
They have also shown tactical flexibility, dominating possession with 60% at home to Kazakhstan, yet remaining compact in more demanding fixtures.
Bookmakers: Cymru slight favourites with home advantage
Cymru are installed as favourites for the fixture, priced at 3/4, reflecting a 57% implied probability. Their home form, control in the earlier 1-1 meeting, and ability to maintain possession at Cardiff City Stadium underpin that position.
The draw is priced at 14/5 (26% probability), highlighting the closeness of the reverse fixture, while North Macedonia are 9/2 outsiders (18%).
For goals, over 2.5 at 6/5 implies a 45% chance, and both teams to score at 21/20 suggests a 49% likelihood. Cymru’s open games with Belgium and North Macedonia’s attacking record keep these markets competitive.
Head-to-head: Evenly matched
Cymru and North Macedonia have met three times competitively over the past decade, with one win apiece and one draw, the aggregate score level at 3-3. Their most recent encounter in March ended 1-1 in Skopje, shaped by long periods of Cymru possession and North Macedonia’s counter-attacks.
Their last Cardiff meeting came in 2013, a narrow 1-0 win for Cymru, while North Macedonia had previously taken a 2-1 home victory in the same campaign. Across all three games, margins have been slim, underscoring the competitive nature of the fixture.
Players to watch: Harry Wilson
Harry Wilson is a key player for Cymru, offering a strong anytime goalscorer option. He has netted twice in this campaign, in the 3-0 win over Liechtenstein and the 3-4 loss to Belgium, where he converted a penalty—indicating he is first in line from the spot.
Wilson has taken seven shots across four qualifiers, three on target, and creates chances from multiple positions. Even in tight games, such as the 1-0 win in Kazakhstan, he registered two efforts and forced a save. His influence tends to grow in Cardiff; against Belgium, he played the full 90 minutes, posed a threat from the right, and won key fouls. With Cymru chasing a crucial result, his minutes, set-piece duties, and shooting output make him a vital figure.
Predicted line-ups
Cymru: Darlow; Williams, Rodon, Lawlor, Dasilva; Sheehan; Johnson, Wilson, Brooks, D. James; Harris
North Macedonia: Dimitrievski; Ilievski, Serafimov, Stojchevski, Ashkovski; Kostadinov, Alimi, Bardhi; Ristovski, Trajkovski, Churlinov
High stakes beyond the table
This fixture carries consequences far beyond the final group standings. Cymru have already secured a March play-off spot via the Nations League, but failure to win here would place them in the lowest seed pot, likely forcing a one-off semi-final away to a top seed such as Italy, Turkey, Ukraine, or Poland.
Victory would secure second place, improve their seeding, and guarantee a home semi-final in Cardiff. North Macedonia face the same incentive: a win would strengthen their seeding and reduce the likelihood of a difficult away tie. Both teams enter level on points, sharing the same route to improve their play-off path and the same jeopardy if they falter, intensifying the pressure.
Everything you need to know
The decisive World Cup qualifier takes place at Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday 18 November, with kick‑off scheduled for 7:45 pm GMT, when Cymru host North Macedonia. The match will be broadcast live on BBC One Wales, BBC Three, and S4C, with streaming available via BBC iPlayer and S4C Online, and live commentary on BBC Sport
