Brussels – The European Commission today lowered its forecast for the growth of Slovenia’s gross domestic product (GDP) for this year from 2.0 to 1.0 percent, while keeping it at 2.4 percent for next year. Inflation is expected to reach 2.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous forecast in both cases.
In Brussels, they expect that both private and public consumption in Slovenia will continue to strengthen in the second half of this year, further supported by the introduction of a winter allowance or Christmas bonus for all employees. They also forecast an increase in investments, primarily due to higher demand and less uncertainty in the world. With the improvement of conditions in export markets, exports are expected to increase, while the growth of imports will decrease.
The outlook for the next two years is better. Private consumption will continue to rise, which in Brussels is attributed mainly to increasing employment and wage growth. Public investments, primarily due to investments financed by the European Recovery and Resilience Fund, will remain at a high level in 2026.
For next year, the Commission forecasts a 2.4 percent growth in Slovenia’s GDP, which is the same as predicted in the spring forecast. In 2027, growth is expected to strengthen further to 2.6 percent.
Regarding inflation, the Commission highlighted the rise in prices of food, services, and energy, which they believe will persist for some time. Nevertheless, the inflation rate is expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 2.3 percent next year, and by the same amount to 2.1 percent the following year. This is slightly above the target of the European Central Bank, which aims for inflation just below two percent.
In response to the forecast, the Club of Slovenian Entrepreneurs (SBC) stated that the halving of Slovenia’s GDP growth for this year is not a surprise. They attributed it to the increasing tax burden in Slovenia, which requires the government to take urgent action in this area. (November 17)