Smaller turkey flock, but Thanksgiving supply, demand remain steady
Published 11:00 am Monday, November 17, 2025
Turkey populations are reduced for 2025, but the industry will still meet “strong” demand, national leaders say.
The USDA projects about 4.8 billion pounds of turkey production for 2025, down from 5.12 billion pounds in 2024.
“We’re down about 6%,” compared to 2024, said Leslee Oden, president and CEO of the National Turkey Federation.
She cites “significant animal health challenges” in recent years with highly pathogenic avian influenza, the major driving point for reduced production.
“However, due to the resilience of our farmers and processors, we’re still able to meet that strong consumer demand,” she said. “While there may be fewer turkeys over all, we’re still making sure we can supply that much-needed staple for the Thanksgiving holiday.”
Retailers and processors work months in advance to secure supply. Turkey processing plants were able to run without operational changes, as inspectors were deemed essential during the 43-day federal government shutdown, Oden said.
Turkey prices
Wholesale prices are up, but the holiday represents “a little bit of a nuance,” Oden said.
A fresh whole tom turkey averages about $1.70 per pound, while a whole hen turkey is about $1.65 per pound.
“We commonly say turkey is the loss leader at Thanksgiving,” Oden said. “We’re still seeing plenty of turkeys in the market place, but also these retailers are offering significant discounts.”
In the Washington D.C. area, turkey prices were below $1 per pound, Oden said. She cites a retailer offering 10-pound to 14-pound turkeys for 25 cents per pound.
“For those dollars, it’s still very affordable for the consumer as we move forward,” she said.
Turkeys by the numbers
According to federation consumer polls, 94% of Americans plan to celebrate Thanksgiving this year. About 87% of those who celebrate say turkey is part of their meal. About 74% plan to serve a whole bird.
The federation estimates that nearly 30 million turkeys will be “enjoyed across the country this Thanksgiving.” Most gatherings include three to 10 guests, about 71%, with 59% planning to host.
The trend has remained consistent each year, Oden said.
“It just reaffirms that turkey is the centerpiece of the holiday,” she said.
The industry continues to take steps to improve flock health and safety.
“(We) look forward to highlighting all of the hard work all of our farmers and processors do on an every day basis to bring turkey to the table for Americans here in the U.S., but also globally,” she said.