Still, progress cannot be assumed but must be earned. Bosnia’s political structure continues to strain under the weight of competing loyalties and external pressures. Moscow views the Balkans as a strategic pressure point in southern Europe, supporting separatist ambitions in the predominantly Serb-populated Republika Srpska entity, fuelling disinformation campaigns, and promoting anti-Western narratives.
Left unchecked, these dynamics could erode three decades of progress, poison the hope of the Bosnian people, and destabilise the wider region.
That is why continued US engagement remains indispensable. American diplomacy, precisely because it is both principled and pragmatic, provides Bosnia with the external anchor it still needs.
Sustained US attention is not charity; it is strategy. It preserves peace, advances Western influence, and mitigates the risk of renewed instability in the Balkans – a region whose crises have never remained contained within its borders.
A renewed American approach to Bosnia should build on Dayton’s enduring strengths while addressing its structural weaknesses. It should be defined by clear outcomes, limited entanglement, and assertive leverage. Five principles can guide this framework:
First, reform with accountability. Condition all diplomatic, economic, and security support on measurable progress toward institutional reform. Tie assistance to benchmarks – judicial independence, electoral modernisation, and digital governance – and apply real consequences for obstruction. Performance, not promises, should define partnership.
Second, security modernisation. Lead a regional security initiative centred on modernising Bosnia’s defence institutions and strengthening NATO interoperability. Make Bosnia’s path to EU accession visible and credible. This would deter malign influence and reaffirm US leadership in southeastern Europe.
Third, economic integration. Encourage targeted US private-sector investment – particularly in renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and transport corridors. Such engagement would reduce dependency on external actors, expand employment to keep young workers in Bosnia, and demonstrate that rule of law and economic growth are mutually reinforcing.
Fourth, targeted sanctions. Maintain coordinated US-EU sanctions against individuals and entities that undermine Bosnia’s sovereignty or the Dayton framework. Sanctions should be precise, enforceable, and tied to a clear diplomatic message: corruption and secessionism carry costs.
And finally, high-level engagement. Institutionalise sustained contact between US and Bosnian leadership through annual strategic dialogues and periodic chiefs-of-state visits. The summer visit by Acting Assistant Secretary Brandon Hanrahan and Deputy Mark Fleming marked a strong start; it should become the model for a consistent engagement rhythm.
Rebalancing, not reinvention