So I decided to go through the past decade or so to see how much each SLS launch has slipped pretty much since they've been announcing dates. Technically some of the earlier documents refer to Artemis I/II as EM-1/2, but I kept them all the same for clarity. I kept all of my information to NASA OIG reports, official NASA announcements, and the Presidential Budget Reports. The vertical line is the current date, and the diagonal line is when that flight should take off assuming no more schedule slips.
Let me know if you see any big errors or have any suggestions. This post is not just to shit on SLS, but more my curiosity of showing the timeline slip, as SLS has the most data to make this style of graph. I will definitely be making one for Starship and other programs as well.
My Research Document: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wctgT2Jfh2BJeG0bI8VZUhXKuBJG6nP8/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114026349642407331662&rtpof=true&sd=true
https://i.redd.it/poyt88r2053g1.png
7 Comments
Yeah with the SoaceX HLS delays and EV suit delays, we ain’t getting to the moon before 2030 which this graph is suggesting
As a kid in the 1990’s, I remember being told we’d be back to the moon by the 2000’s. It seemed a long way off but not too far off. Hell some of the books I read as a young kid in the 1980’s were talking about how humanity would return to the moon in the 1990’s.
After so long when a return to the moon was 10-20 years in the future, it’s good to see a concrete path for being there in somewhat less than that. At the same time it’s a pity that moon programs were repeatedly cancelled for so many decades when we could have gone back much earlier than this, and been on Mars already.
It’s never going to the moon. Get used to it. Just a way to get funding for other projects.
I like this representation. I think I saw a similar one about falcon heavy maiden flight on wikipedia once. But can’t find it anymore. It was basically saying if you multiply the currently announced date by 2.1 you have he lowest overall error across all dates.
As ever, there is a relevant xkcd – [at least the slope is less than one](https://xkcd.com/2014/)
Thank you for putting this together. You requested feedback, so I wanted to make a data visualization suggestion. Half of your graph had no value. Plotting program milestone announcement dates against the date of the announcement is not effective at communicating schedule drift. We as viewers are being asked to visualize how each announcement is deviating from a hypothetical diagonal line.
You want to pick a program baseline target and plot the CHANGE vs TIME. Target slip vs announcement date would be fine.
I was really hoping to see a moonlanding during my life time. Too bad the citizens elected a president who doesn’t care for anything but himself.