1 month for repair, if backup construction already exists in reserve. Or 3 months if not, that’s my guess.
IndividualSkill3432 on
The repair is going to seriously struggle to be done before 2030. Id question if the technical drawings still exist and fabrication on this scale usually involved very long term orders in the modern world. China, the US, Japan, ROK and EU are likely the only places where there is enough big fabrication going on to be able to pull this off, even getting the cranes in to do the work would be expensive and long lead times, without the sanctions.
Most likely scenario is that this is it for the Russian crewed space, Putin spends 5 years promising to fix it and it just never quite gets fixed.
About as likely but perhaps just a tad less so, they spend billions in China to get them to fabricate the parts over the next few years and they are flying some time again in the 2030s.
Wild possibility, Trump and Must get SpaceX involved as they have experience and demonstrated ability to work at this scale.
2020s Russia does not have anything like the scale and volume of manufacturing of the 1960s USSR.
2 Comments
1 month for repair, if backup construction already exists in reserve. Or 3 months if not, that’s my guess.
The repair is going to seriously struggle to be done before 2030. Id question if the technical drawings still exist and fabrication on this scale usually involved very long term orders in the modern world. China, the US, Japan, ROK and EU are likely the only places where there is enough big fabrication going on to be able to pull this off, even getting the cranes in to do the work would be expensive and long lead times, without the sanctions.
Most likely scenario is that this is it for the Russian crewed space, Putin spends 5 years promising to fix it and it just never quite gets fixed.
About as likely but perhaps just a tad less so, they spend billions in China to get them to fabricate the parts over the next few years and they are flying some time again in the 2030s.
Wild possibility, Trump and Must get SpaceX involved as they have experience and demonstrated ability to work at this scale.
2020s Russia does not have anything like the scale and volume of manufacturing of the 1960s USSR.