Oil prices are fluctuating under geopolitical influence: the slowdown in talks on Ukraine and new statements from the United States about Venezuela keep the market under pressure. Analysts are tracking these trends in global benchmarks.
Brent traded around $63 a barrel after a small 0.4% rise the previous day, while the price of West Texas Intermediate rose above $59. The rise is linked to traders’ attitudes toward the geopolitical situation in the world and revised prospects for talks with Ukraine and tensions between the United States and Venezuela.
Stating the meeting between his envoy Steve Wittkoff and Vladimir Putin as “quite good,” U.S. President Donald Trump at the same time acknowledged uncertainty about the outcome of the peace agreement.
Market Situation and Outlook
High-level talks between American and Russian officials have not produced a diplomatic breakthrough in halting the nearly four-year war in Ukraine, leaving the prospects for a near-term end to the conflict distant
– RBC Capital Markets
Experts warn: do not expect significant breakthroughs in future peace talks, as not all interested parties are ready to participate.
On the other hand, Trump reiterated the United States’ intention to ramp up actions against drug cartels on Venezuelan soil. The appearance of American troops in the region increases risks for the oil market and supports prices, despite an anticipated record surplus of supply next year.
Oil faces the prospect of annual losses, as OPEC+ resumes using unused inventories, and other producers increase output. Earlier this year demand from China supported the market, but Hengli Petrochemical International Pte. Ltd. CEO Janet Hong believes demand in the country will remain weak at least until mid-2026.
No matter how strong the demand, there is simply a lot of supply. The path of least resistance for prices is likely to fall
– Saad Rahim, Chief Economist at Trafigura Group
The OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production this year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) brings together states whose economies depend on oil revenues. Currently the organization includes 12 countries: Algeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
This year, OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production, but decided to pause the growth of production in the first quarter of 2026 due to oversupply concerns and a desire to ease the return to the market of each country’s share.