Turkey is raising fresh alarms over its falling birth rate as a long-standing demographic problem intensifies toward the year’s end.
The country, whose population has surpassed 85 million, according to the latest census, is now confronting clearer signs of a rapidly aging society.
Turkey’s total fertility rate has declined steadily for 11 years, falling far below the replacement level needed to maintain the population, according to media reports citing local officials and experts this week.
Why It Matters
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has declared the trend a “demographic disaster” and is pushing policies to boost family formation and childbirth. Turkey’s comparatively youthful population, especially when set against an aging Europe, has long been viewed as a key advantage for its labor force and economic potential.
What To Know
According to research by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the country’s total fertility rate stood at 1.48. Since early 2018, the numbers have remained below two children per woman.
TurkStat Vice President Furkan Metin told Turkish media that the country had joined the ranks of countries considered “very old” demographically.
The fertility rate falling far below the replacement level prompted Erdoğan’s warning in November of a looming demographic disaster, according to Anadolu Agency.
Several factors are driving the slowdown, including Turkey’s prolonged economic troubles, rising living costs and broader social shifts. Young people are spending more time in school and marrying later, while household sizes shrink and single-person homes become more common.
Turkey is “rapidly losing its population’s ability to replace itself, driven by a sharp and continuous decline in the fertility rates over the last decade,” the statistical institute said in a December news release. Earlier this year, Erdoğan launched Turkey’s “Year of the Family” program, unveiling financial incentives aimed at encouraging marriage and childbearing to counter the country’s declining birth rate, such as interest‑free loans for newlyweds and expanded family support services.
According to the Warsaw‑based think tank Center for Eastern Studies, the program is a symbolic step, but underlying economic and demographic trends suggest Turkey faces serious long-term challenges unless fertility rises or other measures are taken.
What People Are Saying
Turkish Statistical Institute Vice President Furkan Metin said, per the Daily Sabah: “In the 1990s, Türkiye was like a 20-year-old young adult. If the downturn in fertility continues at this pace, the median age will surpass 45 within approximately 40 years. The vitality and economic dynamism of a Türkiye in its mid-40s will not mirror the demographic energy the country possessed in its 20s.”
Cemalettin Şahin, the dean of the National Defense University’s Naval Academy, said on Tuesday, according to the outlet: “Türkiye is short of the human capital required to harvest its own hazelnuts, cotton and tea. The demographic outlook is not encouraging. A full-scale nationwide mobilization is required.”
What Happens Next
Experts warn that people over 65 could make up more than 25 percent of the population within 25 years, putting major strain on Turkey’s social security system.