$800B on $10B of revenue.
That’s not optimism — that’s venture capital doing mushrooms.
SpaceX isn’t valued on cash flow.
It’s valued on Elon, vibes, and zero interest rates that no longer exist.
Gravity still works.
So do public markets.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-sets-800-billion-valuation-014652886.html
20 Comments
Realistically no way, but bc if Elon and Stans I would not be surprised seeing it swing between 200B and 2T in trading. Nothing makes sense
i wouldn’t say it’s valued on Elon, it has strong revenue and is easily a generation ahead of all other compositions. If Elon left it wouldn’t drop much, it wouldn’t be at that level without him, but I think it could sustain not having him if there was confidence in his replacement.
A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in order to make a few very, very wealthy.
Am i missing something or can any country in the world now basically just buy Americas main space programme?
Frankly I feel like most are missing the point here.
The “space” business has such incredibly high entry barriers, that competition will need a decade and dozens of billions of funding just to do what SpaceX does today and probably even worse. Think of TSMC-like entry barriers. So if one company like SpaceX is so far ahead that it has more capabilities than most countries on Earth, then the valuation will be a lot higher just because of that barrier.
I still don’t know what spaces does to generate money besides internet. They burn money otherwise?
Didn’t I also read that they’re targeting a $1.5T valuation at IPO. That is insane; we’re talking about doubling its $800B valuation in less than a year.
Repeating some comments directly to OP.
2025 = $15B in revenue (33% increase YoY)
2026 forecasting $25B (when IPO is predicted)
Starlink still growing rapidly in revenue. Huge DoD reliance and growing corporate long-term contracts.
Starshield just getting going. NRO contract. More DoD contracts incoming.
Golden Dome has deep pockets. Reliant on both starshield C2 architecture, starshield satellite buses, and spacex launch capability.
NEO and moon economy is wild west. Huge potential and SpaceX operates the toll bridge.
Get in now if you can.
Given the discussion here, yes, the government has given SpaceX billions of dollars, but it’s not from nothing. That money would’ve gone to different contractors if SpaceX hadn’t won it or existed in the first place, so the nonsensical comments about what wonders NASA would be performing if they didn’t have to keep paying SpaceX for services? They would’ve been paying up to twice as much or more for the same contracts to the likes of Boeing instead – look at the commercial crew contract for example.
As for the high valuation compared to revenue, it’s a bet on the future performance of the company. Starship is much bigger than any existing rocket out there, they have a huge advantage with Starlink, which will continue to widen when Starship takes over deployment, and now they’re apparently going into distributed computing, also based on Starlink, so will be able to deploy far ahead of the rest of the industry. Does it justify a near trillion dollar valuation? Maybe not, but it’s going to be high regardless.
> $800B on $10B of revenue. That’s not optimism — that’s venture capital doing mushrooms.
> SpaceX isn’t valued on cash flow. It’s valued on Elon, vibes, and zero interest rates that no longer exist.
> Gravity still works. So do public markets.
How ironic – using AI to write this post doubting SpaceX’s plan to build AI data centers in space 🤣.
“That’s not X — thats Y” followed up by basically the same construction in your next sentence (It isn’t X. It’s Y), and then listing exactly three things is such obvious AI writing (“Elon, vibes, and zero interest rates that no longer exist”).
The AI writing doesn’t even make sense. If there were still zero interest rates then SpaceX could BORROW the money to fund it. They have to sell equity in an IPO instead.
You couldn’t write your own post? These AI satellites are going to make so much money off of you.
Why did you feel the need to write your post with AI? Do you have that little ability to write now without relying on clankers?
Who makes up these numbers these days.
I just invented a business called EarthX and I think it’s value is 800 trillion. Yay.
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I’ve seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|——-|———|—|
|[30X](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntt7wv0 “Last usage”)|SpaceX-proprietary carbon steel formulation (*”Thirty-X”, “Thirty-Times”*)|
|[BO](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/nttfsqz “Last usage”)|Blue Origin (*Bezos Rocketry*)|
|CST|(Boeing) Crew Space Transportation capsules|
| |Central Standard Time (UTC-6)|
|[DoD](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntt875r “Last usage”)|US Department of Defense|
|[ESA](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntt9vyw “Last usage”)|European Space Agency|
|[FCC](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/nttit3p “Last usage”)|Federal Communications Commission|
| |(Iron/steel) [Face-Centered Cubic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allotropes_of_iron) crystalline structure|
|[JWST](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/nttfsqz “Last usage”)|James Webb infra-red Space Telescope|
|[LEO](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntt7x36 “Last usage”)|Low Earth Orbit (180-2000km)|
| |Law Enforcement Officer (most often mentioned during transport operations)|
|[NEO](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntt875r “Last usage”)|Near-Earth Object|
|[NG](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntt9w5f “Last usage”)|New Glenn, two/three-stage orbital vehicle by Blue Origin|
| |Natural Gas (as opposed to pure methane)|
| |Northrop Grumman, aerospace manufacturer|
|NRHO|Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit|
|[NRO](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntt875r “Last usage”)|(US) National Reconnaissance Office|
| |Near-Rectilinear Orbit, see NRHO|
|[SLS](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/ntteibv “Last usage”)|Space Launch System heavy-lift|
|[ULA](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/nttdf9s “Last usage”)|United Launch Alliance (Lockheed/Boeing joint venture)|
|Jargon|Definition|
|——-|———|—|
|[Starliner](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/nttjfln “Last usage”)|Boeing commercial crew capsule [CST-100](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_CST-100_Starliner)|
|[Starlink](/r/Space/comments/1plkn5a/stub/nttkbwn “Last usage”)|SpaceX’s world-wide satellite broadband constellation|
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today i declare that henceforth i too shall be worth $800 billionty dollars
Imagine living in a time line where 100 p/e is normal. Cooked.
Lmaooooooo the whole space industry was worth slightly less than 600 billion in 2024. That includes all satellite services.
And the OP of this post is an ai machine making posts.
Just insanity it’s another company valued on growth against China who will surpass them within 5-10 years. China is a focused machine with far more resources and talent.
Elon is a snake oil salesman who makes investors emotional and not rationale, he’s the culmination and death of Bro culture along with Joe Rogan. The tech bro’s are the next generation and already getting old.
800 billion huh? Seems a bit… optimistic.
SpaceX aside, a ketamine junkie who plays governments against each other to enrich himself is the central problem in all of this and will continue to be.