Report: Northwest energy supply falling behind demand
Published 7:01 pm Sunday, December 14, 2025
If the Northwest has a long cold snap, it may not have enough electricity, a consultant hired by utilities said.
Up to now, the region has had enough power to meet extraordinary demand. But the surplus is expected to turn into a deficit in 2026, E3 senior partner Arne Olson told the Washington Senate Environment, Energy and Technology Committee on Dec. 5.
Power plants that provide “firm” electricity, such as coal plants, are being shut down. Almost all new power plants are intermittent wind and solar installations, he said.
Windmills and solar panels make only a small contribution to grid reliability in cold snaps, according to Olson. Batteries typically supply power for only four hours, he said.
“If you have an event that lasts three or four days, the four hours is really not that helpful,” Olson said.
Two-part study
Public and investor-owned utilities in Washington and Oregon hired San Francisco-based E3 (stands for Energy and Environmental Economics) to do a two-part study.
The first part evaluated the grid’s reliability. The second part, still to come, will suggest ways to make the grid more reliable.
E3 projects the grid will become increasingly short of enough power to meet peak demands. The demand for electricity will grow, but the supply will shrink, according to figures compiled by E3.
“When I read this report, I had a hard time sleeping,” said the committee’s chairwoman, Sen. Sharon Shewmake, D-Bellingham.
Hydropower dams are a defense against power outages.
“If it’s a wet year, we are fine. If it’s a very, very dry year, and we have a cold snap, that’s when we have the biggest problems,” Olson said.
Demand accelerating
Data centers, electric vehicles and manufacturing are expected to accelerate demand.
Meanwhile, Washington’s clean-energy law commands electric utilities to get off fossil fuels by 2045. The state’s last coal plant is scheduled to close at the end of this year.
Wind, solar and batteries make up almost all new resources. As a result, the region will have less electricity available to meet peak demands. E3 projects the shortfall will grow to 8,600 megawatts by 2030.
“We need resources that can provide that energy for extended periods during these cold weather events,” Olson said.
“We’re replacing resources, but we’re not replacing them in-kind,” he said. “We are actually losing capacity, rather than gaining it over the last seven years.
“In the future, we’ll be looking at emerging technologies, such as geothermal or nuclear or long-duration storage that also may be able to help, but those aren’t available today,” Olson said.
Electric utilities have plans to build enough new power resources to make the grid reliable. But to keep up, they will have to pick up the pace, and it’s hard to get anything build, Olson said.
“More than has been built in the last 25 years has to be built in the next five years,” Olson said. “It’s very challenging to think we can get this amount of power developed over the next five years.”