Does this take into account any climate change? That north might look better then.
oberwolfach on
The modeling seems to put significant weight on recent population trends, which is usually sensible but runs into some issues. The most prominent is the high population growth forecast in North Dakota. Between 2010 and 2020, ND was the fourth-fastest-growing state because of the development of oil extraction in the Bakken. But the Bakken can’t be developed a second time, and ND’s future population will probably waver with the oil market cycle, so persisting the strong growth of the 2010s is not reasonable.
xHourglassx on
This is likely to be extremely inaccurate; it relies on trends as they currently have existed over the past 25 years rather than what will be over the next 25. Those can be similar or related but they could also be drastically different.
Utah, for example, is likely to see growth slow as the Salt Lake Valley runs out of water and space for new homes. There are geographic restricts by mountains and bodies of water that limit potential growth.
Ohio’s starting to see growth with the advent of remote jobs and affordable housing attracting young families.
Austin and San Antonio are two metros
expected to see the greatest slowdowns in growth over the next 10 years. This clearly doesn’t take those predictions into account.
BarnabyWoods on
Who’d have guessed North Dakota would be such a hot ticket?
Salt_Abrocoma_4688 on
This is based on pre-MAGA era numbers. Get ready for collapsing immigration and birth rates. We’re going to lucky if the US is above water in population in 10 years, let alone 25. Birth rates are also collapsing globally, so even when immigration inevitably becomes looser again, there will be fewer young adults around the world to migrate to countries like the US.
-Few-Engineer- on
gonna need more highways for all those folks
BlakeWheelersLeftNut on
Hey look 10 people moved to North Dakota
GianniAntetokounmpo on
Wisconsin’s projections are going to be very very off. 24 to 25 our population was estimated to pass the 6 million mark and none of the projections I’ve seen ever had us passing 5.9 million. It’s going to way underestimate our growth.
KnottyGorillas on
If this is accurate Texas will prove once again it can always get worse. 8 million more people in that desolate wasteland its like they just WANT hell on earth.
suspicious_hyperlink on
Btw Texas does not want you to live there, unless of course you’re a Texan. That’s just how it be idk 🤷
Specialist_Pea_295 on
This is pretty poor guessing.
BluePink_o7 on
I don’t like this map shape wise
Taman_Should on
None of these projections ever take climate change into account. Yeah, good luck moving to Texas or Florida in 2045 when the wet-bulb temperatures are nearly life-threatening in the summertime, the whole grid fails to keep up with the increased cooling demand leading to constant rolling blackouts, and the whole state (especially Florida) becomes an overdeveloped wasteland with not enough access to clean water. Already happening in Arizona.Â
pa_jeon on
Texas absolutely can’t support this much influx; our water supply and infrastructure are already absolutely blasted with the 30 million we have now. Can’t even imagine having close to 40 million
SubzeroNYC on
Interesting that people are leaving Mississippi, but going to Alabama, on a net basis
j_ly on
Minnesota is losing population right now while Wisconsin is adding. How do they arrive at a 10% MN population gain and WI population loss by 2050?
VoteForWaluigi on
As has been said by multiple commenters, this is unlikely to be accurate. Maybe in the very near future but over a long period of time trends shift for a variety of reasons. It’s plausible that accelerating climate change alone will cause large deviations from this prediction in certain states.
brewcrew1222 on
The new York and New Jersey numbers seem off. The Hasidic community in these states are growing like crazy.
Comprehensive-Put575 on
Good. Can I help them pack? Why wait until 2050 when you can leave today!
themightywurm on
this sucks
r3mdh on
Minnesota = all of those illegal Somalis reproducing.
joeyb420 on
Don’t think this at all accounts for the stability the Great Lakes states are gonna offer with climate change and water shortages. Plus Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, all on a steady rebound
Double_Objective8000 on
I’m so glad for No. Dakota, they’ll get some recognition
6ftToeSuckedPrincess on
Damn, bye bye Everglades…
wombatgeneral on
No way Florida’s population is going to be booming in 2050. Between sea level rise, superpowered hurricanes and heavier rain in general, the state is going to struggle to keep its head above water.
Florida is going to be hotter and more humid than it is now, and they will be getting wet bulb heat waves.
shereth78 on
25 year population projections are about as useful as reading the daily horoscope. That said what’s up with the color scale here? Using blue to mean decrease while red means increase is a choice.
Sarcastic_Backpack on
This is totally counterintuitive to all the arguments about rising sea levels and climate change.Heating up the southern parts of the. USA.
Yes, I understand it’s a slower change, but still. In the last part of this 25 year period, it’s going to reverse the shift, and populations will increase in the northern states.
Chiquye on
I think the Great Lakes will see an increase given climate issues affecting everything from the south to the south west.
Even if the 1 in 100 year storms dont get you or deter you the lack of insurance coverage will in places with high flooding or high fire risk.
Mr_BigglesworthIII on
Don’t come to Colorado it’s horrible here you wouldn’t like it.
TheFinestPotatoes on
This data is almost certainly optimistic
Fertility rates are falling and immigration is being deliberately suppressed by the current administration
danodan1 on
Interesting that a lot more people will want to move North Dakota than Oklahoma. I wonder why.
OK_The_Nomad on
Whoa. What’s with OR and WA? We will actually be havens from climate change. We don’t get major weather like hurricanes and it will be a lot cooler in the summer of the future compared to other states. For those of us currently living in the PNW, hold on to your property. Values will increase substantially.
What I don’t get is Texas and Florida. Who the hell would move to those states knowing what is in store for us climate change -wise?
Hungry_Roll6848 on
Oklahoma got 550k in the last 25 years and is still increasing at about the same rate… only 100k for another 25 years doesn’t seem accurate.
Tripalicious on
“Come visit Oregon, but please don’t stay”
-Tom McCall
Neverlast0 on
NYS is gaining people again, or am I reading this wrong?
37 Comments
Does this take into account any climate change? That north might look better then.
The modeling seems to put significant weight on recent population trends, which is usually sensible but runs into some issues. The most prominent is the high population growth forecast in North Dakota. Between 2010 and 2020, ND was the fourth-fastest-growing state because of the development of oil extraction in the Bakken. But the Bakken can’t be developed a second time, and ND’s future population will probably waver with the oil market cycle, so persisting the strong growth of the 2010s is not reasonable.
This is likely to be extremely inaccurate; it relies on trends as they currently have existed over the past 25 years rather than what will be over the next 25. Those can be similar or related but they could also be drastically different.
Utah, for example, is likely to see growth slow as the Salt Lake Valley runs out of water and space for new homes. There are geographic restricts by mountains and bodies of water that limit potential growth.
Ohio’s starting to see growth with the advent of remote jobs and affordable housing attracting young families.
Austin and San Antonio are two metros
expected to see the greatest slowdowns in growth over the next 10 years. This clearly doesn’t take those predictions into account.
Who’d have guessed North Dakota would be such a hot ticket?
This is based on pre-MAGA era numbers. Get ready for collapsing immigration and birth rates. We’re going to lucky if the US is above water in population in 10 years, let alone 25. Birth rates are also collapsing globally, so even when immigration inevitably becomes looser again, there will be fewer young adults around the world to migrate to countries like the US.
gonna need more highways for all those folks
Hey look 10 people moved to North Dakota
Wisconsin’s projections are going to be very very off. 24 to 25 our population was estimated to pass the 6 million mark and none of the projections I’ve seen ever had us passing 5.9 million. It’s going to way underestimate our growth.
If this is accurate Texas will prove once again it can always get worse. 8 million more people in that desolate wasteland its like they just WANT hell on earth.
Btw Texas does not want you to live there, unless of course you’re a Texan. That’s just how it be idk 🤷
This is pretty poor guessing.
I don’t like this map shape wise
None of these projections ever take climate change into account. Yeah, good luck moving to Texas or Florida in 2045 when the wet-bulb temperatures are nearly life-threatening in the summertime, the whole grid fails to keep up with the increased cooling demand leading to constant rolling blackouts, and the whole state (especially Florida) becomes an overdeveloped wasteland with not enough access to clean water. Already happening in Arizona.Â
Texas absolutely can’t support this much influx; our water supply and infrastructure are already absolutely blasted with the 30 million we have now. Can’t even imagine having close to 40 million
Interesting that people are leaving Mississippi, but going to Alabama, on a net basis
Minnesota is losing population right now while Wisconsin is adding. How do they arrive at a 10% MN population gain and WI population loss by 2050?
As has been said by multiple commenters, this is unlikely to be accurate. Maybe in the very near future but over a long period of time trends shift for a variety of reasons. It’s plausible that accelerating climate change alone will cause large deviations from this prediction in certain states.
The new York and New Jersey numbers seem off. The Hasidic community in these states are growing like crazy.
Good. Can I help them pack? Why wait until 2050 when you can leave today!
this sucks
Minnesota = all of those illegal Somalis reproducing.
Don’t think this at all accounts for the stability the Great Lakes states are gonna offer with climate change and water shortages. Plus Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, all on a steady rebound
I’m so glad for No. Dakota, they’ll get some recognition
Damn, bye bye Everglades…
No way Florida’s population is going to be booming in 2050. Between sea level rise, superpowered hurricanes and heavier rain in general, the state is going to struggle to keep its head above water.
Florida is going to be hotter and more humid than it is now, and they will be getting wet bulb heat waves.
25 year population projections are about as useful as reading the daily horoscope. That said what’s up with the color scale here? Using blue to mean decrease while red means increase is a choice.
This is totally counterintuitive to all the arguments about rising sea levels and climate change.Heating up the southern parts of the. USA.
Yes, I understand it’s a slower change, but still. In the last part of this 25 year period, it’s going to reverse the shift, and populations will increase in the northern states.
I think the Great Lakes will see an increase given climate issues affecting everything from the south to the south west.
Even if the 1 in 100 year storms dont get you or deter you the lack of insurance coverage will in places with high flooding or high fire risk.
Don’t come to Colorado it’s horrible here you wouldn’t like it.
This data is almost certainly optimistic
Fertility rates are falling and immigration is being deliberately suppressed by the current administration
Interesting that a lot more people will want to move North Dakota than Oklahoma. I wonder why.
Whoa. What’s with OR and WA? We will actually be havens from climate change. We don’t get major weather like hurricanes and it will be a lot cooler in the summer of the future compared to other states. For those of us currently living in the PNW, hold on to your property. Values will increase substantially.
What I don’t get is Texas and Florida. Who the hell would move to those states knowing what is in store for us climate change -wise?
Oklahoma got 550k in the last 25 years and is still increasing at about the same rate… only 100k for another 25 years doesn’t seem accurate.
“Come visit Oregon, but please don’t stay”
-Tom McCall
NYS is gaining people again, or am I reading this wrong?
Why no data for West Virginia?
Completely inaccurate
It shows the trend before COVID from 2015-2020
Things have changed exponentially since then