Original post, with more data: https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1pqhin6/how_often_does_upsets_happen_how_often_a_weaker/
Posted by hash11011
![[OC] In chess, how often does the weaker player wins against the stronger player? graph showing win percentage vs Elo difference between players](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0mzz58a0f58g1-1024x569.png "[OC] In chess, how often does the weaker player wins against the stronger player? graph showing win percentage vs Elo difference between players")
Original post, with more data: https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1pqhin6/how_often_does_upsets_happen_how_often_a_weaker/
Posted by hash11011
6 Comments
The original post here: [https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1pqhin6/how_often_does_upsets_happen_how_often_a_weaker/](https://www.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/1pqhin6/how_often_does_upsets_happen_how_often_a_weaker/)
The original post linked, has more details on methods used, and more images of raw data, if still needed, i can upload more raw data and CSV files somewhere.
Does this mean that equally matched players have about a 5% chance of agreeing to a draw?
EDIT: Or drawing because of stalemate/ insufficient materials.
It’s kind of amazing that even with a 900 elo point difference, you’ve still got a 1 in 20 chance to win in bullet. 900 ELO is the difference between “decent chess player” and “someone who doesn’t know how the pieces move”
This could use a plot with a different Scale Factor, maybe 300?
Where did you get your data? Especially the ELO ranking?
Fermi-Dirac statistics? Is that you?
“I’m gonna tell you a secret. You’re a much stronger player than I was at your age.”