How New Guidance and Deals Are Rewriting the Story for SunCoke Energy

SunCoke Energy’s latest narrative update comes with a largely steady fair value estimate at $10.00 per share, even as the discount rate ticks down from roughly 11.16% to 11.10% and revenue growth assumptions hold near 11.16%. This subtle recalibration reflects a cautious balance between stronger than expected Q3 results and higher 2025 guidance on one side, and lingering volume, integration, and execution risks on the other. Read on to see how investors can track these evolving assumptions and stay ahead of future shifts in the story around the stock.

Stay updated as the Fair Value for SunCoke Energy shifts by adding it to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our Community to discover new perspectives on SunCoke Energy.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

B. Riley highlights that Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $59.1M was ahead of expectations, with analysts rewarding SunCoke Energy’s execution in Industrial Services and the incremental $10M EBITDA contribution from the Phoenix Global acquisition.
The firm notes that management’s decision to raise 2025 Industrial Services EBITDA guidance to a range of $63M to $67M, and total 2025 adjusted EBITDA to a range of $220M to $225M, underpins a constructive view on growth momentum and synergy capture, even after factoring in integration expenses.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Despite the operational upside, B. Riley trims its price target to $10 from $11 and maintains a Neutral rating, signaling that the current valuation already discounts much of the near term improvement in earnings power.
The research note flags weaker logistics and Domestic Coke volumes and anticipated one time integration costs from Phoenix as key execution risks that could constrain upside versus the revised $10 target.

Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

NYSE:SXC 1-Year Stock Price Chart

SunCoke Energy extended a 3 year cokemaking agreement with Cleveland Cliffs, committing to supply 500 thousand tons of metallurgical coke annually from its Haverhill facility beginning January 1, 2026, on terms similar to existing contracts. This reinforces long term volume visibility.
Management revised 2025 consolidated earnings guidance and now projects Net Income between $48M and $58M, signaling confidence in margin resilience and integration progress despite ongoing volume and logistics headwinds.
The updated outlook includes higher contributions from the Phoenix Global acquisition, with synergy realization and industrial services growth expected to support adjusted EBITDA and offset anticipated one time integration costs.
Stronger than expected Q3 performance, particularly in Industrial Services, has positioned SunCoke to pursue disciplined capital allocation while maintaining flexibility for further deleveraging and potential shareholder returns.

Story Continues

Fair Value Estimate: effectively unchanged at $10.00 per share, indicating no material shift in the intrinsic value assessment.
Discount Rate: edged down slightly from approximately 11.16% to 11.10%, reflecting a modest reduction in perceived risk or required return.
Revenue Growth: essentially stable at about 11.16%, with only a negligible refinement in the projected growth rate.
Net Profit Margin: effectively flat at roughly 2.87%, suggesting no meaningful change in long term profitability assumptions.
Future P/E: nudged lower from about 22.0x to 21.9x, implying a very small reduction in the multiple applied to forward earnings.

Narratives are investor written stories that connect a company’s business reality to the numbers behind it, linking a clear thesis about SunCoke Energy’s future to detailed forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, and then to a fair value estimate. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are easy to follow, dynamically updated as news or earnings are released, and can help you decide how to act by comparing fair value with today’s share price.

Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on SunCoke Energy to stay on top of:

How the Phoenix Global acquisition and expanded industrial services footprint could drive steadier EBITDA despite softer coke volumes.
Whether diversified, long term contracts and export opportunities can offset customer concentration and shifting steel demand.
How analysts’ projections for shrinking earnings, changing margins and a higher future P/E compare with today’s price and the $10 fair value.

Read the original SunCoke Energy narrative here: SXC: Industrial Services Expansion Will Drive Stronger EBITDA Despite Volume Headwinds.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SXC.

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How New Guidance and Deals Are Rewriting the Story for SunCoke Energy