ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 23, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russia conducted another large-scale combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on December 22 and 23, primarily targeting energy infrastructure in western Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Dobropillya direction and a reduced-platoon sized mechanized assault in the Kostyantynivka direction on December 22.
• Combat footage showing failed Russian mechanized assaults continue to demonstrate that Russian forces have been unable to restore mechanized maneuver to the battlefield.
• Russian gains likely will continue to be constrained to a slow foot pace, and any sudden Russian operational-level breakthrough remains unlikely.
• The Russian Baltic Fleet is reportedly reforming its 336th Naval Infantry Brigade into the 120th Naval Infantry Division – the ninth new maneuver division that Russia has formed since 2022.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

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