Ever since Russia used its new ballistic missile Oreshnik against Ukraine, they haven’t stopped talking about it. On the 21st of November 2024, Oreshnik attacked Ukraine’s city of Dnipro. The damage done was not particularly harsh, but it did mark the combat debut of the new missile. And now Oreshnik is based in Belarus as well.
Belarus eventually may have up to a dozen Oreshnik missiles. Image credit: Мацква.ру via Wikimedia (CC BY 4.0)
The unelected leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has confirmed that Belarus already has Russian intermediate-range ballistic missiles Oreshnik. He says they have just arrived and will soon enter service. In total, according to Lukashenko, Belarus is to take delivery of up to a dozen missiles. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that they are watching Oreshnik deliveries to Belarus and are sharing that information with partners. In other words, NATO probably knows Oreshnic locations in Belarus.
The Oreshnik is a strange weapon. It was developed from the intercontinental ballistic missile RS-26 Rubezh. It is believed that Oreshnik’s speed can exceed Mach 10 (12,300 km/h) and it should be very difficult to intercept. Oreshnik has a warhead that promises to rain a deadly hail on its targets. It releases six smaller warheads, each of which reportedly can release submunitions. Oreshnik can carry nuclear weapons, but it can also launch a conventional attack.
The Oreshnik being deployed in Belarus is a strange situation. First of all, they are still Russian missiles and Lukashenko most likely has no say about their use. Most likely, if Putin decided to use them, they would be launched without as much as asking Lukashenko what he thinks about that. And if Lukashenko ordered them to launch, they would probably stay put until Putin says something.
Also, although the appearance of the Oreshnik deeper in Europe is worrying for many, in reality, Russia can launch these missiles into the middle of the continent from its own territory anyway. It is believed that the Oreshnik has a range of about 5.5 thousand kilometers. Their transfer to Belarus is more focused on Europe, but it is not like Russia didn’t have missiles aimed at every European capital anyway.
On the other hand, Ukraine does see this as a threat to it. Now Oreshnik can reach Kyiv in 1 minute and 41 seconds, which makes interception nearly impossible. Also, Russia can use them to drag Belarus into war, because, obviously, Ukraine would have to destroy Oreshnik sites if these missiles were to be launched. Not to mention that Belarus is also hosting Russian tactical nuclear weapons too.
Written by Povilas M.
Sources: Tech.wp.pl, Wikipedia