This is the puzzle economists are now trying to reconcile. In a typical recovery, strong GDP growth shows up first in hiring, then in paychecks, and finally in consumer spending. But in this quarter, it’s reversed: spending is here without jobs. So how does an economy grow at a 4.3% annual rate when households aren’t actually earning more, and in fact, still fighting sticky inflation?
“I’ve never seen anything like it,” KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk told Fortune. “To have this stagflation in the inflation and unemployment rate, and to not have it in growth is highly unusual, and something’s got to give.”
urban_mystic_hippie on
The Trump admin is cooking the books on economic data
LapsedVerneGagKnee on
It’s what happens when the 1% has enough cash to make the number go up without it helping anyone else.
herrcollin on
Call me crazy but I think you need more than, like, 3-4 months to call something an era. We call that a “season”.
ConundrumMachine on
*the era of an economy based entirely on speculation is here
jswitty on
Audit the data if there’s even anyone left to do it
aquagardener on
K shaped economy. Profits for the highest earners, worse and worse conditions for everyone else.
Cryogenx37 on
And this is why people also don’t want to have children. It was already difficult enough to find, apply, interview for jobs, and actually land a role. So imagine 20 years from now when small children today have to go into the workforce
CurryNarwhal on
I guess avocado toast is holding up the economy huh
TehMephs on
Well that’s explains why they’re so gung ho for technofascism I guess. Don’t need the stinking poors no more
Zyrinj on
Health of the US economy doesn’t care about non shareholders. Gen Z being too young to build any equity means they’re even more of an afterthought when it comes to how their economic health tracks with US economic health.
futureb1ues on
A significant portion of this Q4 “growth” is driven by a sudden increase in consumer healthcare spending. A huge part of this sudden increase in healthcare spending is due to the expiration of the ACA subsidies. Individuals and families who renewed their health insurance plans at the new much higher rates have all prepaid their initial premium payments for coverage beginning January, while even those who chose not to renew for 2026 are still paying their existing premiums for November and December 2025. Expect a huge dropoff in consumer healthcare spending beginning in January when there are no premium payments coming in from everyone who chose to go without coverage because of the new higher prices, which will more than offset the increased revenues from those who renewed at the higher prices.
Shaved_Wookie on
The one who excuse the uber-wealthy had was that they were job creators… I guess they finally put themselves out of a job, and will stop leeching off the productive workers that *actually* drive the economy.
I say this as someone that’s worked in tech for well over a decade – we need a neo-luddute to smash these machines that make workers unemployed rather than making our working week shorter and our lives better.
Roentgen_Ray1895 on
Though it’s always been mainly a crock of bullshit, the imaginary pot of fake money has now completely detatched itself from reality
Pepethenormie on
Love this sub, always coming through with new factual reasons to kill myself before the world gets worse
RustySpoonyBard on
Don’t blame Trump or the feds for what the Fed did, they’re back to QE inflating asset values and debasing wages.
Simbakim on
Its just the idiot government posting fake news to postpone the implosion
Big-Snow-1937 on
This is oligarchy in action. The 1% realized they can endlessly pass money around to each other, inflate stock prices to keep the wealthy on sides, and buy politicians and judges who grease the wheel for them.
The problem is the US is that we have weak or no basic social services, which are necessary to keep an exploited workforce at subsistence level, but the Trump Administration is just building detention centers and prisons while dismantling what we have of social or technical infrastructure. They behave like they envision a huge prison-based workforce, AI somehow doing every other job, occasional ”tariff rebate” checks as a poverty stopgap, big debt-leveraged bailouts for their favored industries, and a gig economy/patronage/charity model for the rest of us.
AZWxMan on
Right below this on reddit I see an ad from Bloomberg saying the era of “labor hoarding” is over.
monkeypan on
This is what people voted for. I was repeatedly told on here that I was “fearmongering” and “being mean” when calling people out for this
LaneKiffinYoga on
A real issue is the level of fuckery inherent within Gen Z.
I’m not expecting perfect work, but it appears that the younger Gen Zs are drastically worse than older Gen Zs and younger millennials.
I think it’s clear that Chat GPT and other tech has completely destroyed their level of thinking. Obviously this is a generalization, but I find myself struggling to find good hires out of college who actually understand anything.
Simple tech issues turn into nightmares, whereas the late Gen Z can work Outlook email and solve basic problems.
21 Comments
This is the puzzle economists are now trying to reconcile. In a typical recovery, strong GDP growth shows up first in hiring, then in paychecks, and finally in consumer spending. But in this quarter, it’s reversed: spending is here without jobs. So how does an economy grow at a 4.3% annual rate when households aren’t actually earning more, and in fact, still fighting sticky inflation?
“I’ve never seen anything like it,” KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk told Fortune. “To have this stagflation in the inflation and unemployment rate, and to not have it in growth is highly unusual, and something’s got to give.”
The Trump admin is cooking the books on economic data
It’s what happens when the 1% has enough cash to make the number go up without it helping anyone else.
Call me crazy but I think you need more than, like, 3-4 months to call something an era. We call that a “season”.
*the era of an economy based entirely on speculation is here
Audit the data if there’s even anyone left to do it
K shaped economy. Profits for the highest earners, worse and worse conditions for everyone else.
And this is why people also don’t want to have children. It was already difficult enough to find, apply, interview for jobs, and actually land a role. So imagine 20 years from now when small children today have to go into the workforce
I guess avocado toast is holding up the economy huh
Well that’s explains why they’re so gung ho for technofascism I guess. Don’t need the stinking poors no more
Health of the US economy doesn’t care about non shareholders. Gen Z being too young to build any equity means they’re even more of an afterthought when it comes to how their economic health tracks with US economic health.
A significant portion of this Q4 “growth” is driven by a sudden increase in consumer healthcare spending. A huge part of this sudden increase in healthcare spending is due to the expiration of the ACA subsidies. Individuals and families who renewed their health insurance plans at the new much higher rates have all prepaid their initial premium payments for coverage beginning January, while even those who chose not to renew for 2026 are still paying their existing premiums for November and December 2025. Expect a huge dropoff in consumer healthcare spending beginning in January when there are no premium payments coming in from everyone who chose to go without coverage because of the new higher prices, which will more than offset the increased revenues from those who renewed at the higher prices.
The one who excuse the uber-wealthy had was that they were job creators… I guess they finally put themselves out of a job, and will stop leeching off the productive workers that *actually* drive the economy.
I say this as someone that’s worked in tech for well over a decade – we need a neo-luddute to smash these machines that make workers unemployed rather than making our working week shorter and our lives better.
Though it’s always been mainly a crock of bullshit, the imaginary pot of fake money has now completely detatched itself from reality
Love this sub, always coming through with new factual reasons to kill myself before the world gets worse
Don’t blame Trump or the feds for what the Fed did, they’re back to QE inflating asset values and debasing wages.
Its just the idiot government posting fake news to postpone the implosion
This is oligarchy in action. The 1% realized they can endlessly pass money around to each other, inflate stock prices to keep the wealthy on sides, and buy politicians and judges who grease the wheel for them.
The problem is the US is that we have weak or no basic social services, which are necessary to keep an exploited workforce at subsistence level, but the Trump Administration is just building detention centers and prisons while dismantling what we have of social or technical infrastructure. They behave like they envision a huge prison-based workforce, AI somehow doing every other job, occasional ”tariff rebate” checks as a poverty stopgap, big debt-leveraged bailouts for their favored industries, and a gig economy/patronage/charity model for the rest of us.
Right below this on reddit I see an ad from Bloomberg saying the era of “labor hoarding” is over.
This is what people voted for. I was repeatedly told on here that I was “fearmongering” and “being mean” when calling people out for this
A real issue is the level of fuckery inherent within Gen Z.
I’m not expecting perfect work, but it appears that the younger Gen Zs are drastically worse than older Gen Zs and younger millennials.
I think it’s clear that Chat GPT and other tech has completely destroyed their level of thinking. Obviously this is a generalization, but I find myself struggling to find good hires out of college who actually understand anything.
Simple tech issues turn into nightmares, whereas the late Gen Z can work Outlook email and solve basic problems.