Do you think that if Trump/Coale will conclude negotiations with Lukashenko and all political Prisoners would hypothetically be released, could sanctions on primarily civilian used companies like Belavia be lifted by the eu. Like in February next year there will be the annual review & assessment of the current/new sanctions regime in place, and would that not be the perfect timing for Lukashenko to release & deport all political prisoners, so that there is a good image of him and Belarus for possible eu sanctions relief. Lukashenko imo is not releasing the prisoners for us sanctions relief, they never truly had large trade and commerce going around and even if all us sanctions were suddenly lifted, then good luck getting that to the us, because the eu would be massively restricting stuff and it would have to go all the way to Russia and then through a port and i would make exports non competitive. I think that he is desperate for eu sanctions relief and if all political prisoners, including most notably Poczobut, who is Lukashenko’s ace card, were to be released, would eu trial out and relief limited civilian targeted sanctions, including on Belavia.
But am I like onto something? Because I could kinda imagine that there is a slim 10% chance that eu sanctions could be lifted on smaller stuff like Belavia. I heard of stuff like the Balloon incidents and also that there could be like used for sanction evasion for Russia, but I just see it weird how Poland just opened this border crossing or how Lukashenko lifted visa restrictions on citizens from the eu. But I want to hear your thought, opinions and predictions on the situation
Disclaimer: I am not one of those rich dumb entitled Russian travelers hoping for an easier vacation getaway to Europe. I am just a guy living in Berlin, Germany, who wants to just fly to Belarus MSQ and not have to transit through Vilnius wich is a pain in the a**
https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1pwg5i3
Posted by Z0mbieNick
6 Comments
If that would happen I would happily go visit my family with belavia. Currently EU seems to be drifting away from US politics, on top EU was never in favor of Lukashenko. My explanation on this is an attempt to play real politics, and detach Lukashenko from Putler. Which is going to fail, because it always does. Trump doesn’t have leverage over EU to try to lift off sanctions by EU. So all things combined I don’t think so.
It was never clear to me what the conditions were for lifting sanctions from Belavia. I don’t think it was ever articulated that they were in any way related to political prisoners, unlike for example Poland closing its border crossings. So I am not sure what exactly should happen for the EU to lift these specific sanctions without losing face. Should Belavia un-highjack a plane?
I think the EU will only lift sanctions against Belarus in the event of some kind of major peace agreement with Ukraine.
It is unlikely that any individual sanctions will be lifted, as the EU is, on the contrary, tightening sanctions, which are often populist, have no impact on the war and affect people more. Plus, Lithuania is more anti-Belarusian than the others and will not vote for it.
Lithuania is benefiting hugely from the sanctions on Belavia.
For example; Almost all traffic to Belarus passes through VNO airport on board of Air Baltic then buses (that are usually Lithuanian) + the hotel stays + spendings in the city before/after you cross the land border.
As others said, the US (especially Trump) has no leverage over the EU.
For these reasons alone I don’t even dream that EU will lift any sanctions on Belavia any time soon. My only hope is that the land border stays open for civilians.
EU sanctions will not be lifted by talking to Trump or Coale, Lukashenko would have to talk to EU representatives for that. Given the fact that he is actively engaged in a hybrid war with the EU, the chance of that happening is basically zero, as long as Lukashenko and Putin are still around.
Until there is regime change in Belarus, all sanctions should be increased.
All borders should be closed to the civilised world.
No imports to or from western countries.
Belarus is 100% complicit in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.