Suppose you’re a doctor. Your patient wants to try a new experimental drug, 100 mg. You say “Don’t do it, we don’t know if it’s safe”. They do it anyway and it’s fine. You say “I guess 100 mg was safe, but don’t go above that.” They try 250 mg and it’s fine. You say “I guess 250 mg was safe, but don’t go above that.” They try 500 mg and it’s fine. You say “I guess 500 mg was safe, but don’t go above that.”
They say “Haha, as if I would listen to you! First you said it might not be safe at all, but you were wrong. Then you said it might not be safe at 250 mg, but you were wrong. Then you said it might not be safe at 500 mg, but you were wrong. At this point I know you’re a fraud! Stop lecturing me!” Then they try 1000 mg and they die.
The lesson is: **“maybe this thing that will happen eventually will happen now” doesn’t count as a failed prediction.**
kerodon on
To be clear this shouldn’t be a license to ignore what your doctors and regulatory toxicologists tell you about health and safety data or to imagine fears that are not substantiated by evidence. Someone making a claim something is dangerous without the evidence to suggest harm isn’t a warning, it’s a baseless claim from people not qualified to assess the data. And existence of something is not equal to risk of harm by that thing.
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Suppose you’re a doctor. Your patient wants to try a new experimental drug, 100 mg. You say “Don’t do it, we don’t know if it’s safe”. They do it anyway and it’s fine. You say “I guess 100 mg was safe, but don’t go above that.” They try 250 mg and it’s fine. You say “I guess 250 mg was safe, but don’t go above that.” They try 500 mg and it’s fine. You say “I guess 500 mg was safe, but don’t go above that.”
They say “Haha, as if I would listen to you! First you said it might not be safe at all, but you were wrong. Then you said it might not be safe at 250 mg, but you were wrong. Then you said it might not be safe at 500 mg, but you were wrong. At this point I know you’re a fraud! Stop lecturing me!” Then they try 1000 mg and they die.
The lesson is: **“maybe this thing that will happen eventually will happen now” doesn’t count as a failed prediction.**
To be clear this shouldn’t be a license to ignore what your doctors and regulatory toxicologists tell you about health and safety data or to imagine fears that are not substantiated by evidence. Someone making a claim something is dangerous without the evidence to suggest harm isn’t a warning, it’s a baseless claim from people not qualified to assess the data. And existence of something is not equal to risk of harm by that thing.