Built this chart using NFL play-by-play data from nflreadr and processed it in Python / Jupyter. For each team, I compared the expected points on 4th-down plays to the actual net points gained, to see who’s over- or under-performing relative to expectation.
If you want to dig into the code or replicate the analysis, the notebook is here:
Cool work, although this isn’t about performing *on* 4th down, but rather AFTER it. I’m not sure exactly what this is telling us–is it incorporating where on the field the teams went for it, to therefore project whether going for it was worth it? I feel like the rest of the plays in the drive matter more than the 4th down itself?
treetoptoaster27 on
Da fuck the Carolina panthers doing all the way up there?
SpareAd6504 on
Is this EPA based? Or literally based on if you ended up scoring that drive. If it’s the latter that makes no sense. The axis’ are contradictory
JerseyCitySaint on
Nothing about the Giants would surprise me at this point.
![Which NFL Teams Over- or Under-Perform on 4th Down? Points vs. Expected Points [OC]](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/smnmqa83x6ag1-1536x1374.png "Which NFL Teams Over- or Under-Perform on 4th Down? Points vs. Expected Points [OC]")
6 Comments
Built this chart using NFL play-by-play data from nflreadr and processed it in Python / Jupyter. For each team, I compared the expected points on 4th-down plays to the actual net points gained, to see who’s over- or under-performing relative to expectation.
If you want to dig into the code or replicate the analysis, the notebook is here:
[https://github.com/JonnyMurillo288/NFL_EPA_4th_Down/blob/main/epa_actual_pa_4th_down.ipynb](https://github.com/JonnyMurillo288/NFL_EPA_4th_Down/blob/main/epa_actual_pa_4th_down.ipynb)
Vikings: perfectly mid as all things should be
Cool work, although this isn’t about performing *on* 4th down, but rather AFTER it. I’m not sure exactly what this is telling us–is it incorporating where on the field the teams went for it, to therefore project whether going for it was worth it? I feel like the rest of the plays in the drive matter more than the 4th down itself?
Da fuck the Carolina panthers doing all the way up there?
Is this EPA based? Or literally based on if you ended up scoring that drive. If it’s the latter that makes no sense. The axis’ are contradictory
Nothing about the Giants would surprise me at this point.