Hello Friends, I wanted to share the fertility rate data from the project I have been working on for the last few days. The data goes back to 2009 at the latest because, as far as I could find in the database, TÜİK started sharing fertility rates by province with the public this year. Very interesting, there are probably few countries in the world that have experienced such a sudden decline. By the way, 2025 data only covers the January-July period, as these are the most recently published counts. https://www.tuik.gov.tr/media/announcements/29_Aylik_Dogum_olum_TR.pdf. If you want to download the graphics one by one in HD, I uploaded them to x, you can use them royalty-free. If you have additional questions, I can take them

https://x.com/ortadoguistat/status/2005986006932074848?s=20

Population vision in the first years of the Republic of Türkiye, composed in 1933 Tenth Anniversary AnthemIt finds its equivalent in the following lines of:

"We came out of every war in ten years with open hearts,
We have created fifteen million young people of all ages in ten years."

These statements are not just a line of celebration, but a summary of the demographic reality of the period. The fact that Türkiye’s population, which was approximately 13.6 million in the first census conducted in 1927, reached 15 million in 1933 after recovering from the effects of wars, was considered an important development indicator for that period. However, this increase and the priority of the young population in the first decade of the Republic has now been replaced by a significant demographic collapse.

Türkiye’S FERTILITY COLLAPSE: (2009 – 2025)

Türkiye’s population structure has been in an irreversible collapse in the last 15 years, mainly due to economic reasons. necessary for the population to renew itself. 2,10 The renewal limit decreased from 2.1 in 2009 to 1.36 in 2025. This amounts to a total demographic bankruptcy in just 15 years.

1. National Fertility Rate

• 2009: 2.10 (Regeneration Level)
• 2010: 2,08
• 2011: 2,05
• 2012: 2,11
• 2013: 2,11
• 2014: 2.19 (Peak Year)
• 2015: 2,16
• 2016: 2,11
• 2017: 2.08 (Beginning of Collapse)
• 2018: 2,00
• 2019: 1,89
• 2020: 1,77
• 2021: 1,71
• 2022: 1,63
• 2023: 1,51
• 2024: 1,48
• 2025: 1.36 (Republic Low)

2. Incredible Decline in Metropolitan Cities

Metropolitan cities took the biggest blow. High rents, employment uncertainty and child care costs have virtually destroyed our country’s fertility rate:

• İstanbul: 1,77 → 1,08
• Ankara: 1,68 → 1,06
• İzmir: 1,57 → 1,06

3. Regional Data

Although Southeastern Anatolia has historically remained above the national average, the gap is rapidly closing. Economic reasons began to suppress cultural differences:

• Southeastern Anatolia (Average: 2.13): It is the only area that remains above replacement level.
  • Şanlıurfa (3.05): It is the most fertile province of Türkiye. Even in this province, which has a population of approximately 40-45% Kurdish, 25-30% Arab and 15-20% Turkish, the decline is now very sharp.
  • Kilis: 1,74
• Eastern Anatolia (Average: 1.56):
  • Bitlis: 2,02 | Tunceli: 1,21
• Mediterranean (Average: 1.43):
  • Hatay: 1,76 | Antalya: 1,16
• Central Anatolia (Average: 1.23):
  • Konya: 1,47 | Kırıkkale: 1,02
• Marmara (Average: 1.21):
  • Sakarya: 1,35 | Edirne: 1,07
• Aegean (Average: 1.20):
  • Izmir: 1.06 | Afyonkarahisar: 1,37
• Black Sea (Average: 1.15):
  • Duzce: 1,29 | Bartin: 1,03

Summary

Türkiye has already crossed the threshold of a demographic divide. The fact that the decline is so sharp even in places like Şanlıurfa shows the current state of the economy. We can see that all the basic pillars of the state, from education to health, from defense to social security, will face a major crisis in 20 years. Migrations, different fertility rates, etc. Due to situations such as these, the ethnic structure of the country will change greatly in the coming years. in 1933 "By creating fifteen million young people in ten years" The proud Türkiye has become unable to protect its young population after a hundred years.