Published on
December 31, 2025
The landscape of African aviation is undergoing a seismic shift in late 2025. While the continent’s tourism sector has reached record-breaking heights this year, a paradoxical crisis is unfolding at some of its most critical international gateways. Major hubs across Nigeria, Kenya, Togo, and Egypt are currently grappling with a wave of flight cancellations and schedule disruptions that have left thousands of passengers stranded.
The root of this turbulence? A massive pivot in traveler behavior. As of December 2025, South Africa has joined a growing list of nations—including Uganda, Mauritius, and Kenya—where domestic flight demand is vastly outstripping regional travel. This shift is redefining how airlines allocate their fleets, often at the expense of cross-border African routes.
The Epicenter of the Crisis: Affected Airports
In the final week of December, data from flight monitoring agencies highlighted significant operational hurdles at several key locations:
- Nigeria (LOS & ABV): Murtala Muhammed International (Lagos) and Nnamdi Azikiwe International (Abuja) have seen a spike in “technical cancellations.” Domestic carriers like Air Peace and United Nigeria are increasingly prioritizing internal routes to meet the year-end holiday surge, leading to the thinning of regional schedules.
- Kenya (NBO): Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, the heart of East African aviation, reported over a dozen regional cancellations this week. Despite Kenya’s status as a tourism powerhouse in 2025, the strain of “seasonal operational pressures” has forced Kenya Airways and regional partners to consolidate flights.
- Egypt (CAI): Cairo International remains a global magnet, yet its regional network to Sub-Saharan Africa is thinning. Delays and cancellations here are being attributed to a combination of air traffic congestion and a strategic shift toward European and domestic Mediterranean routes.
- Togo (LFW): As the primary hub for ASKY Airlines, Gnassingbé Eyadéma International Airport is a vital link for West Africa. However, the ripple effect from disruptions in Nigeria and Kenya has caused a “connectivity bottleneck” in Lomé, impacting multi-leg journeys across the continent.
Why Domestic Travel is Winning the “War for Seats”
The “unspoken” headline of 2025 is the unprecedented boom in domestic air travel. For the first time in a decade, the cost and convenience of flying within one’s own borders have become more attractive than navigating the complexities of regional African travel.
In South Africa, the Cape Town-Johannesburg route has solidified its position as the busiest on the continent, with over 5 million seats filled this year. Similarly, in Nigeria, the Abuja-Lagos corridor has seen a 15% increase in capacity compared to 2024.
Several factors are driving this domestic dominance:
Lower Entry Barriers: Travelers are choosing to avoid the high taxes and fluctuating visa requirements often associated with regional “Open Skies” initiatives that have yet to be fully realized.
Economic Efficiency: With inflation impacting disposable income, mid-range travelers in countries like Uganda and Mauritius are opting for local “staycations” or business trips rather than expensive regional hops.
Infrastructure Investment: Governments in Egypt and Kenya have focused heavily on upgrading secondary domestic airstrips, making air travel a viable alternative to road transport for the burgeoning middle class.
The Impact on Regional Connectivity
While the domestic surge is a win for local economies, it poses a significant threat to the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM). The current cancellations at LOS, NBO, and CAI represent more than just a holiday hiccup; they signal a potential retreat from the goal of a borderless African sky.
Airlines are finding it more profitable to run a 50-minute domestic “shuttle” three times a day than to commit an aircraft to a 5-hour regional flight that requires complex overflight permits and higher landing fees. This has resulted in what experts call the “Regional Gap,” where it is often cheaper and faster to fly from Lagos to London than from Lagos to Nairobi.
What Travelers Need to Know
If you are traveling through these hubs during the peak 2025–2026 transition, the following advice is critical:
- Monitor “Stopover” Risks: Many flights from Abuja (ABV) to Nairobi (NBO) now involve stops in Lomé (LFW) or Addis Ababa. If one leg is canceled, the entire itinerary often collapses.
- Reconfirm 48 Hours Prior: With airlines shifting capacity to domestic routes at short notice, schedules are more fluid than usual.
- Understand Compensation: Many of these disruptions are being classified as “operational adjustments,” which in some jurisdictions may limit your eligibility for standard delay compensation.
Conclusion: A Turning Point for African Aviation
2025 marks a turning point where Africa has emerged as a star performer in global tourism. However, the current chaos at airports like LOS, ABV, NBO, LFW, and CAI serves as a wake-up call. For the continent to truly soar, the success of domestic travel must eventually be mirrored in regional connectivity. Until then, the “Domestic Surge” remains the dominant—and disruptive—story of the year.
