ENEA study: by the end of the century, Italy and the entire Mediterranean basin will be affected by a general increase in temperatures and an average reduction in precipitation

According to the study, in mountainous areas a. is expected increase in summer temperatures with tips up to + 4,5 °C and up to +3.5 °C in autumn in the highest impact scenario (fig. 1). This is significant warming which, in these areas, is not reproduced by low-resolution global models.

On the front of precipitation il climate will tend to become generally drier in all seasonsparticularly during theestate (fig. 2). However, in the two most critical scenarioswe expect a increase from the frequency and of theintensity of extreme weather events especially in northern Italy and, in particular, in zone alpine e subalpine (Fig. 3).

Going into the detail of the ENEA elaborations, at the end of the century (2071-2100), in winter there could be an increase in rainfall intensity especially in Western Alpsunlike the eastern Alps where there is a slight decrease; while in southern Italy the intensity will decrease, with a particularly marked decline in the main reliefs of Sicily (fig. 4). In primavera the picture is similar to the winter one, but with a more widespread increase in intensity across the entire Alpine range. In estate a generalized decrease in the intensity of extreme rainfall was detected, especially along the Tyrrhenian coasts. In fall, in the most severe scenario, finally, a significant increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall over much of the Italian territorywith more marked increases in areas where the expected climate impacts are already more intense (Northern Italy).

The study is here: Impact of spatial resolution on multi-scenario WRF-ARW simulations driven by the CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR global model: a focus on precipitation distribution over Italy

(the increase of up to 4.5 degrees in certain mountain areas is quite scary, bye bye snow, skis and water reserves…)