Andres Vosman, who spent the last five years analyzing intelligence on Russia, told Eesti Ekspress recent Baltic cable damage isn’t hybrid warfare but coincidence.
“It’s likely in Russia’s interest to keep the Baltic Sea as trouble-free and navigable as possible, since its exports depend on the region’s stability. /—/ Strategically speaking, Moscow doesn’t need that kind of mess. At the same time, Russia is also characterized by bardak — disorder — so you can’t fully rule out a situation where one hand doesn’t know what the other is doing,” Vosman told Eesti Ekspress.
“My strong assessment is that most of the recent incidents in the Baltic Sea have largely been the result of coinciding factors — much heavier ship traffic toward Russia, vessels in poor condition with low crew competence, more underwater infrastructure than in the past and increased public attention. Faulty anchoring equipment cutting underwater cables in stormy conditions has happened before, but no one talked about it. At the same time, the longer the West collectively allows Russia’s shadow fleet to race around the Baltic, the more likely it becomes a matter of time before something else happens,” said Vosman who is now Estonia’s ambassador to Israel.
In Vosman’s view, a conventional war against Estonia is unlikely in the near term for various reasons.
“As for Ukraine and what Ukrainian intelligence leaders have said about the Baltics — not only this year but earlier as well — that’s largely aimed at creating a sense of urgency or acuteness in the West to push them into dealing more assertively with Russia. So we’re kind of collateral damage in that regard,” Vosman said.
He added that statements from Western politicians and intelligence services are often directed at their domestic audiences — for example, Germany seeking a pretext to increase defense spending.
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