The conclusions are from an opinion poll on the expectations of the Portuguese for the coming year at the family, national and international levels, coordinated by Pedro Adão e Silva and Isabel Flores, from IPPS-ISCTE, carried out within the scope of the report “Panorama 2026”. The research included responses from 807 respondents and was conducted by GfK Metris.
When questioned about political stability in the country, 46% of respondents believe that the new year will be the same, 31% think the situation will worsen, only 14% view 2026 with optimism and expect improvements, while 9% responded that they did not know.
Regarding economy
Regarding the national economy, the scenario is similar: the study indicates that 42% of Brazilians believe that 2026 will be a year of continuity, 36% consider it will be worse, and 14% think it will be better.
However, on the economic front, pessimism decreases when Portuguese respondents are interviewed about their family situation: 56% believe 2026 will be the same year, 16% anticipate improvements, and 25% predict their financial situation will worsen.
Most pessimistic
Those responsible for this opinion poll emphasise, however, that “one cannot speak of optimism,” since the majority (56%) believe that everything will remain the same in 2026.
The area where respondents are most pessimistic is internationally, with 40% predicting a worse year (the same number of respondents who predict that everything will continue as in 2025) and only 11% expressing optimism.
According to those responsible for the study, the prevailing idea that 2026 will not be very different from 2025 is “surprising,” since this year was marked by “significant political instability,” with a parliamentary dissolution and elections that resulted in a “fragmented parliamentary landscape,” and a “very sensitive geostrategic context, with several events occupying significant media space.”
The researchers emphasise that “across the board, respondents with lower incomes are invariably more pessimistic,” and people on the left are also more pessimistic than those on the right.
On the other hand, about half of those interviewed with an income that allows them to live comfortably are “quite pessimistic about the international situation,” while, the authors emphasize, “the same is not true regarding the national economy (where only 23% state that the New Year could be worse) and even less so when questioned about the economic situation of their own household (with only 6% having negative expectations).”
The research also shows that young people are the least pessimistic in the various dimensions of the study. For example, regarding the country’s political stability, only 22% of respondents aged 18-24 foresee any worsening, one in four predicts that the economy will worsen, and only 14% view their household’s financial situation pessimistically.