I’m curious how people in Armenia view Turkey’s long-term demographic trends and how this might affect Armenia & Turkey relations over the next few decades.
From what I’ve read, many Turkish-majority provinces are now below replacement fertility, while several Kurdish-majority provinces remain above replacement. Even Erdogan has publicly stated that by around 2038, a majority of households in Turkey are expected to be Kurdish.
Given this shift, how do Armenians think Turkey’s internal demographics might influence, Turkish nationalism and state policy , The Kurdish question and internal stability & Armenia & Turkey relations and the South Caucasus more broadly.
Do you see this leading to a more pragmatic Turkey, more instability, or no major change at all from Armenia’s perspective?
https://i.redd.it/23gsxmcwvgbg1.png
Posted by ExAustralia
9 Comments
We are entering a new era of declining demographics worldwide. I just dream of this leading to ending wars for land and promoting humanistic values.
Regarding Turkey — I hope that this will lead to Genocide recognition and happier and healthier relationships with Armenians.
Very intriguing post. Following to see people inputs/thoughts.
If this is accurate I assume relations will get better if a larger Kurdish group becomes the majority.
Worst case scenario is my guess is Turkish nationalists will do crackdowns or a similar Genocide to them to keep the numbers down.
The case for a Kurdistan gets stronger and stronger year after year and with the fact Iraq and Syria have strong and stable Kurdish regions I would expect them to break away first and then try to unite with Kurds in Turkey. Iraqi Kurdistan becoming a state within the next 10-30 years is very plausible.
These Birth rate declines are a recent global phenomenon especially here in the west.
Eventually Kurds may outnumber Turks I think if this continues, but it wouldn’t affect anything diplomatically since Turks would still be the ruling elite in the country
Not really. This is not a cultural thing but more about economics. Armenia is perhaps worse. And the issue of kurdistan isn’t getting more possible. Turkey would go back to 80’s just to not give a inch of land.
As a Turk I don’t see this affecting Turkish Armenian relations too much because Turkish nationalism and Turkish atrocity denial (not just Armenian Genocide but Chios massacre etc, anything that makes Turks look like the bad guys) is so radically ingrained into the Turkish national psyche.
What will compel Turkey is continued economic stress. Right now, hypothetically, if the EU and the US embargoed Turkey for genocide denial, I don’t think the Turkish economy could afford to survive it.
If you look at the map the biggest decline in TFR is for Kurdish majority areas. Places above 4 TFR declined to below 2 within just 15 years!
Yes Kurdish TFR is higher and maybe the Kurds will reach around 20% of Türkiye’s population. The only blue province in the map Urfa has around equal Turk Kurd Arap people within.
Where did you see that Erdogan quote about Kurds being the majority by 2038?
Turkey is already very much crowded, so it’s good news. You can’t even breathe air in Istanbul