Pensions, migration and military conscription will continue to shape German domestic politics in 2026. However, how the AfD fares in state elections will be crucial.
The German government, made up of the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats, has for the time being removed from its most difficult domestic policy agenda: after tedious debates, it pushed its state pension reform package through the Bundestag in early December. The gist of it: pension levels will remain stable until at least 2031.
Fundamental reforms of the system will now be worked out by a commission, which is expected to present its proposals by mid-2026. Will the retirement age be raised again – from 67 to 70 perhaps? Or will the country say goodbye to a fixed retirement age for everyone, as envisaged in a proposal by economics professor Jens Südekum?
Südekum wants the number of years a person has worked to count towards determining the size of their pension. Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the idea “certainly worth considering.” He added: “I want to implement a comprehensive reform. And this issue could play a role here.”
The issue of fair care in old age in a society where people are living longer and the elderly are becoming more numerous will remain a challenge for the country and its government in the coming years.
In the 2026 budget, the state’s contribution to compensate for the pension system’s losses amounts to 128 billion euros – about a quarter of the total budget.
Young Conservative MPs in particular were and remain unhappy with pension reform and are demanding significant improvements for the period after 2031, especially for future generations. The pensions committee is therefore under pressure to produce truly workable proposals on an extremely complex issue.
Military service in Germany
Important decisions have also been made regarding military service: at the beginning of the year, all those who have reached the age of 18 will receive letters from the state. Men must fill out the attached questionnaire, women are not obliged to do so, but can do so.
Participation in a medical examination, i.e. determining their health, will be mandatory. The government is counting on finding enough volunteers to increase the number of German soldiers from the current 183,000 to a planned number of between 255,000 and 270,000 over the next ten years. This is currently the plan of Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD). In addition, 200,000 reservists are to be added.
Next year, it may become clear whether there are enough volunteers or whether the government will have to turn to the Bundestag again and reactivate compulsory military service, which has been abolished since 2011.
Can the Alternative for Germany win the state elections?
As early as 2025, Germany is facing a serious question: how strong will the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) become? It is already the strongest opposition party in the Bundestag, and in 2026, state elections will be held in two eastern German states – Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD has around 40 percent in current polls, while in the other state it has 38 percent.
Will the center-right democratic parties succeed in changing anything? And if the AfD becomes the largest force in these states, will the conservative Christian Democrats’ promise not to cooperate with the AfD under any circumstances remain in effect?
The elections in these states are due in the second half of the year. Until then, they will dominate the debate about the AfD. Before that, there will be elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate in March.
Migration: Merz hopes for the removal of border controls
The topic of migration will certainly be in the spotlight again this year. Since the government took office in May 2025, Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrint (CSU) has repeatedly said: Germany is now pursuing a tough policy towards immigrants. More people should be returned immediately directly to the borders.
In mid-December, EU interior ministers also agreed to significantly tighten the common asylum policy. So-called return centres are being planned again in countries outside the EU, although previous attempts – such as those by the Italian government in Albania – have not been successful. People who are in the EU without a right of residence and refuse to leave its territory should be punished more severely.
With a common asylum policy, “…we will also be able to move border controls to Europe’s external borders,” said Chancellor Merz.
In other words: long-term controls at all of Germany’s external borders could be lifted in 2026. Whether this will actually happen remains to be seen. The initiative by EU interior ministers still needs to be approved by the European Parliament.
Will the government debate climate policy in 2026?
The year 2026 will also be important for national climate policy. In December, the EU specified its climate targets: greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990, and by 2050, the European Union wants to become climate neutral. German Environment Minister Carsten Schneider (SPD) expressed great satisfaction: “The new EU climate target is probably the most important climate policy decision of this legislature.”
The Minister of Economics, Katarina Reiche (CDU), relies on gas-fired power plants and is not particularly ambitious when it comes to popularizing wind and solar energy.
Martin Kaiser, a climate expert at Greenpeace, told DW: “Unlike the times of the traffic light coalition, the dramatic failures in the transport and housing sectors must be compensated for by appropriate, socially acceptable emergency measures. A return to fossil fuels in industrial and energy policy, as Minister Reiche is planning, must not be allowed.”
The government is therefore facing a serious conflict on climate policy next year – as it is on many other issues. In domestic politics, 2026 will certainly be a very busy year. /DW/