Quick links to a couple of pieces I published elsewhere this week:
First, in Politico’s annual “Black Swan” feature, on unlikely scenarios that could nonetheless come true, 15 Scenarios That Could Stun the World in 2026:
By the end of 2026, President Trump will have begun to distance himself from the aggressively pro-AI industry policies that characterized his AI strategy in 2025. The giant AI infrastructure plays (like Project Stargate) that he championed after his inauguration will look like an unprofitable and underused mistake. So will his utter failure to meaningfully regulate AI, against the will of voters and political leaders both left and right. … Generative AI, once Silicon Valley’s golden child, will start to look like a fad, a solution in search of a problem with economics that don’t add up. And as it all starts to fall apart, Trump will bolt for the door. “Coffee chatbot, we hardly knew ye,” Trump will be overheard to say.
And, second, here is an except from a new essay on chatbots and information warfare, co-authored with Damon Beres in The Atlantic:
Current AI] systems are patient, amoral, and fantastic at mimicry, making them among the greatest tools in history for generating mis- and disinformation—the latter of which is a tremendous weapon, not necessarily for its ability to persuade and convince, but for its ability to sow chaos. This, rather than some intelligence breakthrough, may well be the legacy of generative AI.
In turn, the fog of war may become more terrifying as citizens lose trust in much of what they read or see, and when conflicts are started and escalated by false pretexts.
Gift link to full essay here, courtesy The Atlantic.