Micron Technology (MU) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the stock with a 1-day return of about a 1% decline but a gain of roughly 32% over the past month.
See our latest analysis for Micron Technology.
That pullback comes after a 6.7% 7 day share price return and a 31.6% 30 day share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return is very large at just over 3x. This suggests momentum has been strong rather than fading.
If Micron has caught your eye, this could be a good moment to see what else is moving in high growth tech and AI stocks as AI and chip related themes evolve.
With Micron trading near US$312 and sitting at an intrinsic value estimate discount of about 63%, yet slightly above the average analyst target of around US$305, you have to ask: is there real upside left here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
According to BlackGoat, the narrative fair value of about US$204 sits well below Micron’s last close at US$312, which sets up a clear gap to unpack.
The AI Supercycle: This is the most powerful catalyst. The demand for next-generation HBM is unprecedented. Micron has successfully passed NVIDIA’s quality verification for its HBM3E products, becoming a key supplier for the next-generation “Blackwell” AI accelerator. The company is now shipping high-volume HBM to four major customers across both GPU and ASIC platforms. With its entire 2025 production capacity already sold out, analysts project the HBM market will grow from roughly $30 billion in 2025 to a staggering $100 billion by 2030, representing a massive runway for growth.
Curious how a fast growing AI memory business can still lead to a lower fair value than today’s price? Revenue growth, margin expansion and a richer future earnings multiple all sit at the heart of this valuation story, but the exact mix may surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $203.92 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, that upbeat AI memory story still runs into real risks, including intense competition in HBM and the ongoing overhang from U.S. China tech tensions.
Find out about the key risks to this Micron Technology narrative.
BlackGoat’s fair value of about US$204 paints Micron as 53.1% overvalued, but earnings based ratios tell a different story. With a P/E of 29.5x versus a US Semiconductor average of 38.7x and a fair ratio of 49.4x, the market is pricing Micron at a clear discount to both. Is that a sign of caution or an opening?
