A large majority of UK voters believe immigration is increasing despite sharp falls in the number of people entering the UK, according to exclusive polling shared with the Guardian.
Voters also say they have no confidence in the government’s ability to control the UK’s borders, according to the poll by More in Common. The results will come as a blow to Keir Starmer’s administration, which has taken an increasingly hardline stance on immigration in recent months.
Net migration to the UK fell by more than two-thirds to a post-pandemic low in the year ending June 2025, but 67% of the people polled thought it had increased. Among Reform voters, four in five thought immigration had grown, and more than three in five (63%) believed it had “increased significantly”.
The home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, promised “the most substantial reform to the UK’s asylum system in a generation” in November, and proposed a series of hardline policies to make the UK less attractive to migrants and refugees.
Under new plans those with refugee status could wait 20 years to become British citizens, asylum claimants could have their assets confiscated, family reunions could be curbed, and refugees returned if conditions improved in their home countries.
But despite the measures, which some Labour MPs fiercely oppose, confidence in the government on immigration has plummeted. Three-quarters (74%) of voters said they had little or no confidence in the government on the issue, up from 70% in May last year. Only 18% of voters had confidence, down three percentage points. The biggest drop in confidence came from those who backed Labour in 2024, where confidence dropped by 17%.
“The Labour government is facing a growing credibility gap on migration … That tells us that numbers alone are not enough,” said More in Common’s executive director, Luke Tryl. “Until that credibility gap closes, Labour’s migration migraine will persist.”
The highly visible issue of small boats remains critical to public perception of migration, he said. According to the polling, 79% of voters wanted the government’s focus to be on stopping the vessels, with only one in 10 believing that reducing legal net immigration should be its top priority.
In the year ending June 2025, 43,000 people arrived on small boats, up 38% on the previous year but fewer than the 46,000 peak in 2022. Those arriving on small boats make up only a tiny proportion of the overall number of people coming to the UK – less than 5% in 2025, according to Guardian analysis.
The polling revealed a persistent and “broad public cynicism” around migration, but a lag in perception could result in voter opinion changing in the coming months, said Marley Morris, from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR). “Labour have been doing a lot to emphasise a tough line on migration because they want to try to challenge that perception, but it’s quite ingrained,” he said.
In further disheartening news for the government, when given accurate migration figures fewer than one in five credit the government for the decline, with a similar number attributing the drop to the previous Conservative government.
Net migration to the UK peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but fell by more than two-thirds to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Visa applications to the UK also fell sharply in 2025. Monthly migration statistics published on Thursday showed skilled worker applications were down by 36% and health and care applications down by 51%.
Migration minister Mike Tapp said it was evidence that Labour’s plans to back British workers over overseas workers and “restore order to the broken immigration system we inherited is paying off”.
“Net migration is at its lowest level in half a decade, and has already fallen by more than two-thirds under this government after it was allowed to explode to nearly one million in recent years,” he said.
Kim Johnson, the Labour MP for Liverpool Riverside, said the polling revealed the “cost of mimicking Reform” – a rise in racism and a steep decline in work visas, which risked leaving the health and social care sectors in crisis.
“The government must present a positive alternative vision, one that supports the rights and dignity of those who moved to Britain to work and build homes and families,” she said. “Otherwise we will continue to see the impact of the divisive rhetoric, including at the ballot box, where such narratives are fuelling – not muting – the Reform vote.”