U. S. intelligence reports indicate a difficult economic and political situation in Cuba, but they do not provide strong backing for President Donald Trump’s claim that military actions in Venezuela make the island nation “ready to fall. ” The CIA has noted that Cuba’s key economic sectors, such as agriculture and tourism, are significantly challenged due to frequent power outages, trade sanctions, and loss of support from Venezuela, a longstanding ally. However, the intelligence assessments do not definitively conclude that Cuba’s deteriorating economy will lead to government instability.
Trump and some officials suggest that cutting off Venezuelan oil, crucial for Cuba’s economy, could lead to the collapse of the Cuban government. Trump mentioned that Cuba lacks income after depending heavily on Venezuelan oil. The White House, CIA, and Cuban officials did not respond to inquiries about these assessments. Following the arrest of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro by U. S. forces, Venezuela’s current oil supply to Cuba is also uncertain.
Cuba’s Communist economy has struggled for years due to strict state control and a U. S. embargo, further exacerbated by Venezuela’s declining economy and a drop in tourism due to COVID-19. Some CIA reports describe Cuba’s economic conditions as very poor, although not as dire as during the “Special Period” of the 1990s. Reports indicate that power outages can last about 20 hours a day outside Havana, a significant increase from the past.
There is also a demographic concern as many younger Cubans have migrated, which may dampen the momentum for political reform often seen in youth-driven movements. The population has reportedly decreased from over 10 million in recent years to less than 9 million. Experts believe that while economic hardship can lead to survival concerns among the population, it can also push people to act when they reach a breaking point. Overall, though economic conditions are dire, whether they will lead to political change remains uncertain.
With information from Reuters