Elections matter. Just think about how much the world has changed since President Trump was re-elected by a margin of 1.5 percentage points, just over a year ago. Or think about how different things might have been if David Cameron had not won an unexpected overall majority in 2015, and his promised “in-out” referendum on the EU had not come to pass.
This will be a year of interesting elections. Hungarians will go the polls in April. Viktor Orban and his right-wing populist and nationalist Fidesz party has been in power since 2010. He is a strong critic of Ukraine and has cracked down on individual liberty, press and academic freedom, claiming to lead an “illiberal democracy”. He is close to both Trump and President Putin.
Opposition voters are coalescing around Peter Magyar and his new centre-right pro-EU party, Tisza. It is part of the European People’s Party (EPP) group to which Fine Gael is aligned. Increasingly in continental Europe, the electoral choice is between the right and the centre or centre-right and parties of the left are often also-rans.
Tisza maintains a lead in most, but not all, opinion polls. The Hungarian electoral system, in which half the seats are elected using the first-past-the-post model, heavily favours the largest party and it favours Fidesz specifically as Fidesz’s support is spread across Hungary, while support for the opposition is heavily concentrated in Budapest. Orban could lose the popular vote and still have a majority in parliament.
Nonetheless, with a high turnout of younger and urban voters hungry for change, unhappy with the rising cost of living, corruption and ultraconservative policies, the opposition could win. It’s one to watch. A change of government will have repercussions well beyond Hungary’s borders.
Israel will also go to the polls, no later than the end of October. Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition of right-wing, racist and religious parties has been behind in the polls since the massacre of October 7, 2023. Many Israelis blame him for failing to keep them safe, and oppose his increasing authoritarianism.
Against Netanyahu is a diverse coalition of right-wing, liberal and left-wing parties that may need the support of an Arab party for a majority. The former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s new party is the most likely to lead the opposition bloc.
If Netanyahu won again, Israel would continue on its present course. Those in the West who believe that most Israelis do not support Netanyahu would be disillusioned. In the US, it would be impossible for any Democrat to win their party’s presidential nomination without being critical of Israel. In the past, they had to profess their Zionism to have a chance. That would be a sea change.
Binyamin Netanyahu
ARIEL SCHALIT/AP
If Netanyahu lost, a new government could make a fresh start. My contacts in Israel tell me that attempts to politicise the judiciary and stifle press freedom and free speech would be reversed. It would be a good day for secular Israelis and for the Arab Muslim and Christian minorities.
When it comes to occupation, settlement expansion and putting a two-state solution back on the agenda, however, my sources tell me not to hold my breath. Policy changes there will happen only when there is real pressure from America.
In Sweden, the polls indicate that elections are likely to bring the Social Democrats back to office in September. If that happens, it would be a big boost for Europe’s beleaguered centre-left.
Elections in Denmark are predicted to return Mette Frederiksen to office. She is an atypical Social Democrat who has been tough on immigration, strongly pro-Nato while decidedly left of centre on everything else. She has won respect for standing up to Trump’s designs on Greenland. What will happen on that front is impossible to predict.
I cannot see the United States invading Greenland. This would be the end for Nato. European leaders would be forced to give up on their efforts to placate and appease the White House in the hope of maintaining the Atlantic alliance between Europe and America. Quite simply, the marriage would be over.
Interestingly, the main opposition in Denmark comes not from the centre-right or the far right but from the far left, which recently won local elections in Copenhagen. Perhaps Frederiksen has proven that the best way to see off right-wing populism and nationalism is to respond to public concerns about migration and the perceived loss of national identity.
In early May, voters will elect new Scottish and Welsh parliaments and there will be local elections across London and in parts of England. Labour faces meltdown. In Wales, which it has governed since devolution, it could end up in third place behind Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, which advocates Welsh independence.
In Scotland, the SNP first minister John Swinney has steadied the ship and is likely to be returned to office, though he will need a coalition. Again, Labour may be pushed into third place in what used to be a stronghold. In London, Labour will haemorrhage seats to the Greens in trendy inner London, and to Reform and the Liberal Democrats in the suburbs.
No matter what the result, Labour will still be in power in Westminster. Who lives at No 10, though, is another matter. Expectations are low that Keir Starmer will survive, unless the results are even worse than Labour MPs fear. Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, are already making moves. Streeting has proposed a customs union with the EU, something that could eliminate post-Brexit checks on trade between Britain and Ireland. Angela Rayner may also make a challenge if questions about her tax affairs are resolved by then. For politicos, it’s worth booking the next morning off work so you can stay up late to watch the declarations.
Sir Keir Starmer with Wes Streeting
STEFAN ROUSSEAU/PA
There will also be presidential elections in Colombia and Brazil. Latin America tends to oscillate from left to right. It has shifted to the right in recent years with candidates winning in Chile, Bolivia and Argentina. The left fancy their chances of holding on.
Brazil, with a population of more than 200 million and a large economy, will be important. President Lula da Silva, 80, is planning to seek re-election and may face Flávio Bolsonaro as his main opponent. Bolsonaro is the son of jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, known as the “Trump of the tropics”. Lula leads in the polls, though his age will be an issue.
Then the big one: the US mid-terms on November 3, when every seat in the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and most state governors will be elected. As things stand, the Democrats are likely to overturn the narrow Republican majority in the House. Hakeem Jeffries of New York will be sworn in as speaker, the first person of colour to hold the office. Barring a big upset, only the margin is in doubt. This will give Democrats the power to block legislation and the power to subpoena and investigate officials. They could even impeach Trump for a third time, though I suspect they will not, or at least not quickly. The margin of victory will be important.
Few Republicans have been willing to stand against Trump’s agenda. The only thing they fear more than him are the voters. A big win by the Democrats will make Republicans more likely to rebel.
It is very hard to see Democrats winning the Senate. They would have to hold every seat they have and chock up surprise victories in a red state such as Ohio, Alaska, Iowa or even Texas. It will be interesting to watch the gubernatorial contests in big states such Ohio, which look unusually close in early polls.
As always, the outcome of these elections will be determined by those who show up, and the results will have repercussions internationally.