January 14, 2026
SEOUL – The number of first graders in South Korea is set to fall more than 15 percent in just two years, dropping below 300,000 for the first time as the country’s population decline accelerates.
According to a report released Tuesday by the Ministry of Education, elementary schools nationwide are expected to enroll 298,178 new students in March, when the academic year begins. That represents a 15.5 percent decline from 353,000 in 2024.
The estimate was compiled using data from the Korea Educational Development Institute, the Ministry of Data and Statistics, and the Ministry of Interior and Safety.
The Education Ministry had initially projected that the number of first graders would fall below 300,000 in 2027, according to a forecast published last year. However, it revised the projection after factoring in changes to the number of registered residents and school enrollment rates.
The number of first-grade students steadily declined from about 710,000 in 1999 to roughly 468,000 in 2009. It then hovered in the 400,000 range for over a decade before plunging to 353,000 in 2024 and 324,000 in 2025.
In Tuesday’s report, the ministry said the figure is expected to fall further, to around 277,000 in 2027 and 232,000 in 2030. Enrollment is projected to drop to 220,000 by 2031, a 32 percent decrease compared to this year’s expected intake. Adding to concerns, the number of new elementary students is expected to fall below 10,000 in most of the country’s 17 provinces and metropolitan cities by 2031.
Meanwhile, the total number of students enrolled in elementary, middle and high schools is expected to dip below 5 million in the 2026 academic year.
The report said the total student population will decline from 5.01 million in 2025 to 4.83 million in 2026, with the downward trend pushing the figure below 4 million by 2031.
The shrinking student population has led to school closures and teacher layoffs nationwide, fueling tensions between the government and teachers’ groups.
Seven teachers’ unions held a joint press conference Monday, urging the government to halt policies that reduce the number of teachers.
“The argument that the number of teachers must be cut simply because student numbers are declining is a textbook example of bureaucratic thinking that ignores realities in the classroom,” the unions said.
“It is effectively a declaration that the government is giving up on public education,” it added.