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SkyWater Technology (SKYT) has drawn fresh attention after its latest quarterly earnings, reporting revenue of US$150.74 million, which was 60.7% higher year over year, and EPS improving to US$0.24 from US$0.08.
See our latest analysis for SkyWater Technology.
That earnings release has coincided with sharp share price momentum, with a 96.26% 1 month share price return, a 108.39% 3 month share price return and a 42.80% year to date share price return. Total shareholder return sits at 178.52% over one year and 276.82% over three years, suggesting recent enthusiasm has built on an already strong longer term run.
If SkyWater’s move has you watching the sector more closely, this could be a useful moment to look at high growth tech and AI stocks as potential next candidates for your research list.
After such a powerful run, the key question now is simple: is SkyWater still trading below what its fundamentals might support, or has the recent surge already baked in most of the company’s future growth potential?
With SkyWater shares last closing at US$32.03 against a most-followed fair value estimate of US$21.00, the current market enthusiasm sits well above that narrative line in the sand, setting up a clear tension between price and the assumed cash flow outlook.
The recent acquisition of Fab 25, backed by a multi-year $1B supply agreement with Infineon, quadruples domestic 200mm foundry capacity and creates a platform to address rising customer demand for secure, U.S.-based chip supply. This opportunity is amplified by ongoing government and private sector shifts prioritizing supply chain resilience, which is likely to drive top line revenue growth and increase revenue visibility.
Curious what kind of revenue runway and long term margin profile need to line up to support that fair value gap? The narrative leans on rapid top line expansion, a step change in profitability and a future earnings multiple that looks very different from today. The full set of assumptions puts hard numbers behind those ideas.
Result: Fair Value of $21 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are clear pressure points too, including higher debt from the Fab 25 deal and exposure to government contracts that could shift or face funding delays.
Find out about the key risks to this SkyWater Technology narrative.
If you see the story differently or prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can shape a fresh SkyWater view in minutes by starting with Do it your way.