Forming a minority government in the Netherlands will not lead to a change in the course of support for Ukraine, but it may affect the situation of Ukrainian refugees in the country. This opinion was expressed by Dutch journalist and political scientist Hubert Smeets.
According to him, the D66, VVD, and CDA parties are almost certainly going to form a minority government in the Netherlands. Such a coalition would hold 66 of the 150 seats in the lower house and 22 of the 75 seats in the Senate. The expert described the situation as unique, since there have been no minority governments in the Netherlands since World War II.
“The fact that the Netherlands would be governed by a minority coalition will not have a fundamental impact on the Netherlands’ policy toward Ukraine. D66 (Democrats 66), CDA (Christian Democratic Appeal) and VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) will continue the current course, since GL/PvdA (GreenLeft and Labour Party) will also support Ukraine”
– Hubert Smeets
Prospects and risks for Ukraine and refugees
The expert warns: if a center-right minority government focuses on strict austerity in health care, social protection, and education, it may face difficulties financing Europe’s military strengthening and support for Ukraine.
“A general risk of this coalition could be the nature of the Netherlands’ relations with the United States. In particular, the VVD and to a lesser extent the CDA fear angering Trump too much, as they cannot envision Dutch or European foreign policy without U.S. involvement”
– Hubert Smeets
“A lot depends on the quality of ministers. If the new government is formed from second-tier politicians, the minority coalition could become problematic for Ukraine. But if D66, CDA and even VVD can find first-class ministers willing to be independent politicians and not behave like frightened rabbits staring into the headlights of oncoming cars, the Netherlands will not become a bigger burden than, for example, Denmark or Sweden”
– Hubert Smeets
According to Smeets, if key positions in the government are held by experienced and independent politicians, the Netherlands will remain a reliable partner for Ukraine and will not weaken European support for Kyiv. All three parties have expressed the desire to form a minority government.
In conclusion, the expert emphasizes: the course of supporting Ukraine will remain stable, as before, however political dynamics may create new challenges for Ukrainian refugees in the country depending on the government’s decisions and social policy.