Despite European allies and Canada committing billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine and pledging sharp increases in defence spending, NATO’s ability to deter Russia has been weakened by growing trans-Atlantic divisions and internal mistrust, analysts say.
The 32-member alliance has faced strain over the past year amid repeated remarks and actions by US President Donald Trump, which allies say have undercut NATO’s political cohesion.
The tensions have been most visible in the following areas:
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Trump’s repeated threats to seize Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of NATO member Denmark
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His criticism of NATO allies’ defence contributions
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His remarks questioning the role of European and Canadian troops in Afghanistan
While tensions over Greenland have eased for now, experts say the episode caused lasting damage. Sophia Besch of Carnegie Europe said the dispute “crossed a line that cannot be uncrossed”, weakening the alliance even without the use of force.
The discord has not gone unnoticed in Moscow. Russia remains NATO’s principal security threat, and deterrence depends on convincing President Vladimir Putin that the alliance would respond collectively if the war expands beyond Ukraine.
“It’s a major upheaval for Europe, and we are watching it,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last week.
Under pressure from Washington, NATO allies agreed in July to significantly raise defence expenditure, committing to:
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Spending 3.5 per cent of GDP on core military defence by 2035
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Allocating an additional 1.5 per cent to security-related infrastructure
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Matching overall US defence spending levels over the next decade
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has hailed the pledges as proof of NATO’s strength, crediting Trump for pushing allies to act. However, he has avoided commenting on the Greenland dispute, raising concern among some members.
Founded in 1949, NATO’s deterrence rests on Article 5, which commits all allies to respond to an attack on any one of them. Analysts argue that Trump’s remarks challenge the assumption that all allied territories are inviolable.