Alternative proteins are being positioned as a future industrial category rather than a consumer food trend, following new economic modelling of their potential impact across the European Union.
The analysis evaluates plant-based products, precision fermentation ingredients, and cultivated meat as part of an emerging manufacturing ecosystem spanning agriculture, biotechnology, food processing, and distribution.
By 2040, the sector could account for €111 billion in annual gross value added within the EU. The domestic value chain alone is estimated at €79 billion, covering crop production, ingredient processing, food manufacturing, and commercial distribution. Export activity linked to these products could reach €60 billion, creating a new area of trade strength for the bloc.
Employment associated with this activity is projected to total 414,000 positions across laboratories, factories, farms, and logistics networks.
The modelling also outlines upstream effects on agriculture. Demand for protein crops, such as legumes, is expected to increase, potentially reducing reliance on imported feedstocks used in livestock production.
Realising this economic contribution depends on targeted public funding estimated at €1.4 billion per year directed towards research capability, scale-up facilities and regulatory capacity to process novel food approvals more efficiently for emerging businesses.
Separate modelling focused on Germany suggests national output from alternative proteins could reach €65 billion by 2045, supporting as many as 250,000 jobs.