NATO’s defense ministers are meeting in Brussels on February 12 for their last official gathering before the alliance’s summit in Ankara in early July.
No concrete decisions are expected in the Belgian capital — instead the meeting is about two things.
First, an attempt to try to patch up what appears to be an increasing rift between European allies and the United States, which was laid bare over the recent discussions surrounding the political future of Greenland.
And second — and not entirely unrelated to the first issue — figuring out how to achieve the decision made in the Hague last year that all 32 allies should spend 5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035.
The Greenland controversy is still looming large over the gathering even though it isn’t part of the official discussion. While one European NATO official said that there has been a “fundamental breach of trust” inside the alliance on the issue, most diplomats whom RFE/RL has spoken to appear to agree that it is best if it isn’t brought up for now.
Arctic Sentry
The hope is that the launch of the Arctic Sentry mission by the military alliance just a day before the ministerial meeting will prove that everyone is on the same page in taking High North security seriously, and that this will silence any talk of a potential American takeover of the Danish territory.
Speaking about Arctic Sentry ahead of the ministerial meeting, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte noted that “for the first time we will bring everything we do in the Arctic under one command. We will not only leverage all that we are doing, we will also see what gaps there are and we will fill them” adding that “we do this because we have a clear sense that the Russians and the Chinese are becoming more active there.
Sources that RFE/RL has spoken to on condition of anonymity say that there are roughly two camps in the alliance on how European capitals should respond to recent events.
Some countries, led by France, are still reeling from the US pressure and want European nations to diversify away faster from the US security umbrella.
In the other group, there are nations, especially on the eastern flank, which have concluded that there isn’t much European nations can do in the immediate future and they should therefore rely on American protection and goodwill for years to come.
These countries subscribe to Rutte’s view that Europe wouldn’t be able to defend itself without America, even if nations spend well over 5 percent of GDP. This includes US nuclear capabilities that can’t readily be replaced, but also satellite technology, military intelligence, and other strategic enablers.
The hope is still that the camps will show a united front during the ministerial meeting and that this will continue when most participants dash to Munich for the annual security conference on February 13-14 where most will want to prevent a similar transatlantic fall-out to that which was on full display in Davos only last month.
Defense Spending
But for that to happen, the European states and Canada need to deliver on the second issue — stepping up defense spending.
As one European military official put it to RFE/RL: “2026 is all about implementation, implementation, implementation.”
With most countries just about reaching 2 percent of GDP on defense in the last year, this is a major undertaking. But it is the one point that they know US President Donald Trump and his administration will continue to hammer home to Europe and Canada.
Ahead of the ministerial meeting, Rutte put a positive spin on things by highlighting the spending spree in Germany, one of the alliance’s key European members, where he said investment was “up by tens of billions.”
“Germany by 2029 will spend 152 billion euros [$180 billion] on defense,” he said. “That is more than double what they were spending in 2021. So, in eight years they will double their defense spending. It is just one example of many.”
All NATO countries should hand in their Strategic Level Reports (SLR), outlining military spending for the next five years, ahead of the ministerial meeting. And this has some countries worried as they don’t plan on spending too much in the coming years before potentially hiking spending closer to the target date, so that they fulfil requirements just in time — an “accounting trick” known as the “hockey stick method” in NATO corridors.
This is something that US officials have made clear they won’t tolerate and Washington will warn Europeans that they will have to be able to present credible and gradually progressive defense spending before going into the Ankara summit in order to make it a success.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth won’t participate in the Brussels meeting but will instead be represented by his deputy, Elbridge Colby. Widely regarded as the man who might be even more hawkish on spending than his boss, Europeans will make sure not to cross him.
It is expected that his speech will focus on the need for “the Europeanization of NATO.” That means essentially three things — spending more, European nations getting combat ready, and the need to step up various capabilities. Few are expected to challenge that.
Ukrainian ‘Whiz Kid’
But while Colby will be the most observed man in the room, part of the ministerial meeting will also be dedicated to a newbie that many are looking forward to hearing from. At the NATO-Ukraine Council session, the freshly minted Ukrainian defense minister, Mykhaylo Fedorov, will make his first appearance at the military alliance in his new role.
There is quite a buzz in Brussels about the 35-year-old “tech guy” and political “whiz kid” who previously worked for several years as the country’s minister for digital transformation.
Officials are especially keen to see how Fedorov, who is one of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s closest confidants, will cope in reforming and modernizing the still heavily centralized Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
But NATO officials actually hope he will also share his knowledge of cutting-edge drone warfare and cyber capabilities. “He is probably the biggest expert in the room on all modern technologies” as one diplomat put it.
But what about financing for Ukraine?
The NATO-led PURL initiative, in which European allies pledge money for US-made weapons heading to Ukraine reached nearly 5 billion dollars in 2025. There is a push in the alliance to repeat this in the spring as Russia continues to pound the country daily with rockets.
But it is indicative that NATO no longer publicly announces when new PURL packages are agreed — following a request from alliance members to remain anonymous and strategic.
Some sources, however. fear that this is rather a reflection of both a reduced appetite to buy American in many European countries and mounting fatigue over financing a war that is about to enter its fifth year.