![I ran 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of Hungary's April 2026 election. Orbán's 16-year rule is a coin flip. [OC]](https://www.byteseu.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/nh5c2s15phjg1-1024x726.png "I ran 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations of Hungary’s April 2026 election. Orbán’s 16-year rule is a coin flip. [OC]")
Data source: Polling data aggregated from the Vox Populi database (kozvelemeny.org)
Tools: Python (matplotlib), hierarchical Bayesian model with 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations
More details: https://www.szazkilencvenkilenc.hu/forecast-2026-02-09/
Posted by Exciting-Lab1263
6 Comments
How is it that close with the polling numbers as they are?…
neat
now share in r/hungary
edit:
and for those who are interested how the Fidesz has ruled Hungary….
this has come out a day ago and sums up their despotic rule in the past 16 years ( with English subtitles)
https://youtu.be/9NQEcLIiOpM?si=IlXFjAxfOOTTaYGR
Sic semper tyrannis
Don’t the opposition supporters claim there are pollsters allied with the government massaging the results, and vice versa? If either of those things is true, it might end up being a landslide.
Post code and underlying data, random account posting.
how did you get to this result when Partizán’s method got a 77.8% chance of TISZA majority?
Everyone and their grandmas should go vote to vote him out, this is probably the last chance they will have to do it