At the annual security gathering in Munich, where Europe’s leaders speak in careful phrases about war and peace, Croatia’s Prime Minister offered a sober note on Ukraine’s European ambitions.
Plenković Urges “Realism” on Ukraine’s EU Path
Andrej Plenković said Saturday that Ukraine must be “realistic” about its prospects for joining the European Union, even as leaders in Kyiv continue to voice hope that the country could be ready for membership by 2027.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Plenković warned that admitting a country as large and economically battered as Ukraine would reverberate across the bloc’s finances and policies. Bringing Ukraine into the 27-nation union, he said, would have “an enormous impact” on the European budget, as well as on the bloc’s agricultural and cohesion policies — two pillars that distribute billions of euros among member states.
“We must be realistic,” Plenković said during a panel devoted to Ukraine. “There is political will, but we have to carry this out technically in a way that does not create a major imbalance in the functioning of the European Union.”
His remarks underscored a widening gap between political symbolism and institutional reality. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion, European leaders have repeatedly affirmed that Ukraine’s future lies in Europe. But translating that aspiration into full membership remains a far more complicated endeavor.
Enlargement Commissioner: 2027 “Impossible”
Marta Kos, the European commissioner for enlargement, was more blunt. Under the current enlargement methodology, she said, it would be “impossible” for Ukraine to become a member on January 1, 2027.
Kos pointed to Sweden as an example of the lengthy process involved. Even as one of Europe’s most developed countries, Sweden negotiated for three years before joining the bloc. Ukraine, by contrast, faces the monumental task of rebuilding its economy and institutions while fending off a war.
Croatia’s own path to membership offers another reminder of the time and political capital required. The country, now the European Union’s youngest member, joined in 2013 after beginning accession talks in 2005 — one of the lengthiest negotiation processes in the history of enlargement. In 2021, Zagreb signed an agreement with Kyiv to assist Ukraine in navigating the accession process, drawing on its own experience of reform.
Kyiv Pushes for a Clear Date
Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has continued to press for a tangible timetable. Writing recently on X, he said it was “important that Ukraine does everything to be technically ready for EU accession by 2027. At least the main steps will be fulfilled.” He added that Ukraine wants a precise date for membership, arguing that ambiguity would only embolden Russia.
Accession to the European Union requires unanimous approval from all existing member states, and resistance remains entrenched in some capitals. The most vocal opponent has been Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s right-wing populist prime minister, who has argued that admitting Ukraine could draw the European Union more directly into war and destabilize the bloc’s internal balance.
For now, the promise of Europe remains both a strategic objective and a political symbol for Ukraine — a marker of alignment with democratic institutions and Western security structures. But as leaders gathered in Munich made clear, the road from aspiration to accession runs through a dense thicket of legal chapters, budgetary recalculations and unanimous political consent.
In the careful language of European diplomacy, support for Ukraine’s future inside the union remains steadfast. Yet realism, as Plenković put it, may prove just as decisive as resolve.
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